So go back and run this whole article through a “grab for natural resources” lens and the Putin/Trump alliance makes so much more sense. (Ditto Trump’s involvement in Gaza, Canada and Greenland but let’s shelve that for another day 🙄). This is all about dividing up the spoils of war. It’s a real estate grab (the underground version). You know that expression “All politics is local”? Well, I’ve come to see that “All US policy is personal” in Trump’s quest to make himself a much richer man. This is his legacy and our country is the conduit for his enrichment. I almost wish he was a crazy guy with wild ideologies. This is simpler, darker and way more ass-backwards than I ever could have dreamed.
I might have mentioned this comparison in a previous comment, but reading Elise's excellent analysis makes me want to repeat myself—particularly the line "The calculus for Trump is increasingly challenging". I agree it's challenging compared to before Trump’s 2nd inauguration, but it's so much easier than during his first term. This shift isn't because Russia has become more trustworthy, but because the Republican party has transformed into Trump's unquestioning apparatus, abandoning any values that aren't Trump’s own.
Remember Helsinki 2018? Standing beside Putin, Trump took the Russian president's denial of election interference at face value, saying "I don't see any reason why it would be Russia" despite overwhelming evidence and consensus from our intelligence agencies. The backlash from his own party was swift and severe:
Then-Speaker Paul Ryan immediately responded: "There is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy... The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally." Senator John McCain called it "one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory." Senator Bob Corker said Trump "made us look like a pushover." Even Senator Lindsey Graham, now one of Trump's most ardent defenders, tweeted that it was a "missed opportunity... to firmly hold Russia accountable for 2016 meddling." None of these things would be said by a Republican today unless they were announcing their retirement.
Trump's damage control back then was comical—claiming he misspoke and meant to say "wouldn't" instead of "would." If you actually insert that word, his entire statement becomes nonsensical, as he spent the entire press conference defending Putin only to suddenly say he not only thinks Putin did, but that he couldn’t imagine it possible that he didn’t, just in one random disagreeing sentence? It was an embarrassment on top of the previous embarrassment. He was admitting (through a transparent, absurd lie) that he wanted to be seen as strong against Putin but didn’t have the guts to confront him at all.
Fast forward to 2025, and what a difference! We watched as Trump not only embraced Putin's talking points but publicly humiliated President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office for daring to suggest Putin might break a ceasefire agreement. Instead of Republican outrage, we saw:
JD Vance, now vice president, actively joined in the berating of a wartime ally, suggesting that not groveling sufficiently to the president was reason enough to show our ally to the door. A pro-Trump reporter had the audacity to criticize Zelenskyy for not wearing a formal suit during a war. GOP leadership like Speaker Johnson declared that "the days of America being taken advantage of and disrespected are OVER." And most tellingly, Lindsey Graham—the same senator who criticized Trump's Russia stance in 2018—not only suggested Zelenskyy should resign but said he had "never been more proud" of Trump than during this grotesque meeting.
The most telling detail from the meeting: when Zelenskyy reminded Trump that Russia has repeatedly broken agreements, Trump responded not by acknowledging this reality but by telling Zelenskyy "you don't have the cards right now" and accusing him of "gambling with World War Three." It is no longer about truth, but political games, and Republicans are cool with that.
This remarkable shift shows that Trump's calculus isn't more challenging—it's dramatically easier. The Republican party hasn't gained any actual trust for Russia, but they no longer see any incentive for questioning Trump's opinion on anything. The contrast between Graham's proud endorsement of Trump's behavior in 2025 versus his criticism in 2018 perfectly encapsulates this transformation. The party has completely realigned, abandoning its long-held adversarial stance toward Russia in favor of whatever position Trump takes. No more awkward splits, no more measured criticism, no more need for clumsy walk-backs. Russia is effectively now our ally.
The real calculus that's become challenging is for Ukraine—and by extension, for the entire post-WWII international order that has maintained relative peace in Europe for over 75 years.
"The coming days will reveal whether Washington recognizes Russia’s diplomatic chess game for what it is – and whether it has the skill and patience to outmaneuver Putin, who has always played the long game."
This is such a good summation of the place we find ourselves. It's a concerning trend, not just from Trump but from his administration, to publicly take Russia's claims at face-value and insist that the administration is clearly seeing the situation for what it is. Setting Tulsi Gabbard's long history aside, just recently she retweeted a post claiming that shutting down the USAGM (Voice of America, etc) was good because those media channels "perpetuated a pro-war narrative against Russia." With respect to DNI Gabbard...no Eastern European I know needs any American help to understand that Putin's Russian government is a serious threat. They were warning us about Russian state interference in elections over a decade ago because they've been dealing with it for even longer; Finland started teaching a media literacy curriculum in part to counter the steady stream of disinformation coming from the Russian state (and over here, of course, there was Tenet Media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tenet_Media_investigation) In a move that seriously annoyed VP Vance, the Romanian court recently vacated election results after evidence of significant interference from Russian sources. In what I'm sure is a *total* coincidence, in addition to the usual comments claiming that NATO started this or that anyone skeptical of these negotiations just wants "endless war," I've been seeing an uptick in social media comments that are suddenly very concerned about the importance of holding Ukrainian elections right now. I wonder why that could be...
I have a MAGA supporting cousin that insisted to me that Russians live “peaceful and fulfilling lives,” so it’s really no big deal for Ukraine to be taken over by them. It shocked me, but also broke my heart. It feels like such a reflection of the MAGA admiration and consent for authoritarian rule. And the insidious nature of Russian propaganda.
A few years ago I read a really good book about modern Russia: "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible" by Peter Pomerantsev (he has a second book out "This Is Not Propaganda" that I haven't read yet, but looks good). Basically he dives into the setting for Russia's current political state, the groundwork that was laid after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the challenges faced by a populace who went from hundreds of years of rule by the Tsars to immediately being ruled by dictators and then soon after being ruled by the strongman thugs who rose to power post-USSR. Authoritarianism is the only air that most have ever breathed.
I do believe, as I'm sure most do here, that the Russian people are largely good people who are largely leading peaceful and fulfilling lives. They are also victims of their government and, along with Ukraine and the rest of Europe, conceding to Putin's power will only make things worse for Russians in the long term.
Yes. I didn’t mean to imply that Russians as a people are bad or even that they aren’t mostly living peaceful lives (except, of course, for the ones that disagree with Putin that lose jobs, get imprisoned, or even killed). The concern I feel is the utter lack of respect for a people who want democracy and are fighting for it. Russians may feel mostly happy with their situation, but Ukrainians sure don’t.
I think most Russians are lacking food, jobs and adequate food and housing. The rich pro Putin Russians may enjoy these things, but I don’t think everyone does.
I also have a relative who touted the "you just want forever war" line to me recently in conversation. It broke my heart as well. This person is intelligent, kind, and thoughtful, but I hear them quoting company lines and it makes me sad and a little hopeless for change.
Read, “…dwindling Western military support,” as US support. The only thing I’d like to add to this excellent article is that the West is not united in “unsupporting” Ukraine.
Europe has always provided more support than the US, unlike some political talking points (aka lies). Europe has stepped up their support in response to the US abandoning their values and embracing Putin (switching teams).
This. And, as an extension, I fear for Europe more generally. I don't believe that Putin intends to stop with Ukraine. And I fear for the US. We should be supporting Ukraine as a democracy.
Trump will bend the knee and give Putin whatever he wants. 1) because he is too impatient to negotiate a real mutually beneficial ceasefire, and 2) dictators have to stick together or else they’d be alone.
YES. & I'd add: 3) Trump only understands power as a tool for dominance; he does not value mutuality or interdependence. The strong are entitled to overtake the weak, so naturally Putin gets Ukraine. It's the only logical conclusion.
Let’s also not forget a previous article where we learned about Ukrainian children being kidnapped and indoctrinated as Russians. That blew my mind. How is no one clanging the gong about that one in addition?
If Ukraine is handed to Russia. Putin won’t stop there and if he attacks a NATO country (Finland) then I guess we’ll see where 47’s regime true loyalties stand.
What does Putin have on Trump? I'm convinced that Trump has been laundering money for the Russian oligarchs through real estate and other deals since the 1980s.
Putin has something on trump. I am certain of this. Trump is not a smart person, he’s a bully who throws outlandish ideas out there to see what sticks. Russia does not just want Ukraine, in 5 years they will take the next country and so on until they are a power too big to control. Trump may be too stupid to understand this, but not everyone around him can also be that stupid. Someone has warned him of this and he’s still not budging. What we need is someone to find out what Putin has on him and bring it to light. We already know trump does not care about the people, just power and lining his own pockets. While I’m sure he loves the dictator aura Putin gives off, there is more to this.
"[T]he signatories said they were expressing a genuine concern that went beyond who would win an election. And it wasn’t only those 51 former officials who were concerned about possible Russian attempts to smear Biden. NBC News reported in October 2020 that the CIA and other spy agencies gathered intelligence on Giuliani’s dealings with alleged Russian intelligence agents as he searched for dirt on Biden and passed his findings on to the Trump White House....In that context, the emergence of the laptop around the same time raised suspicions, especially because the New York Post reported that it obtained the material from Giuliani. ...
"It was Weiss [the lead prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case] who filed charges last week against Smirnov, accusing the informant of lying to the FBI when he relayed information that Joe and Hunter Biden had each accepted bribes of $5 million in 2015 from Ukrainian executives of Burisma, the company that paid Hunter Biden millions of dollars to sit on its board....In a filing this week seeking to revoke Smirnov’s bail, prosecutors said he had repeatedly “lied to his FBI Handler after a 10-year relationship where the two spoke nearly every day” — and that he had “extensive” contacts with Russian operatives." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/former-us-spies-warned-2020-hunter-biden-scandal-russian-fingerprints-rcna140240 (https://adfontesmedia.com/nbc-bias-and-reliability/)
I'm afraid the only thing that will save Ukraine is to agree to give up its natural resources and/or other assets. If Trump and his billionaire oil/gas/mineral extractors force Ukraine into a deal that will result in a ton of money for them, the U.S. just MIGHT hold Putin to the terms of any ceasefire or end to hostilities. It won't have anything to do with democracy or doing what's right or to save the brave Ukrainian people. It will simply be for the money.
So go back and run this whole article through a “grab for natural resources” lens and the Putin/Trump alliance makes so much more sense. (Ditto Trump’s involvement in Gaza, Canada and Greenland but let’s shelve that for another day 🙄). This is all about dividing up the spoils of war. It’s a real estate grab (the underground version). You know that expression “All politics is local”? Well, I’ve come to see that “All US policy is personal” in Trump’s quest to make himself a much richer man. This is his legacy and our country is the conduit for his enrichment. I almost wish he was a crazy guy with wild ideologies. This is simpler, darker and way more ass-backwards than I ever could have dreamed.
Thank you, Jeanne, “…grab for natural resources,” let’s not stop talking about that. It is, after all, the historically American Way.
I might have mentioned this comparison in a previous comment, but reading Elise's excellent analysis makes me want to repeat myself—particularly the line "The calculus for Trump is increasingly challenging". I agree it's challenging compared to before Trump’s 2nd inauguration, but it's so much easier than during his first term. This shift isn't because Russia has become more trustworthy, but because the Republican party has transformed into Trump's unquestioning apparatus, abandoning any values that aren't Trump’s own.
Remember Helsinki 2018? Standing beside Putin, Trump took the Russian president's denial of election interference at face value, saying "I don't see any reason why it would be Russia" despite overwhelming evidence and consensus from our intelligence agencies. The backlash from his own party was swift and severe:
Then-Speaker Paul Ryan immediately responded: "There is no question that Russia interfered in our election and continues attempts to undermine democracy... The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally." Senator John McCain called it "one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory." Senator Bob Corker said Trump "made us look like a pushover." Even Senator Lindsey Graham, now one of Trump's most ardent defenders, tweeted that it was a "missed opportunity... to firmly hold Russia accountable for 2016 meddling." None of these things would be said by a Republican today unless they were announcing their retirement.
Trump's damage control back then was comical—claiming he misspoke and meant to say "wouldn't" instead of "would." If you actually insert that word, his entire statement becomes nonsensical, as he spent the entire press conference defending Putin only to suddenly say he not only thinks Putin did, but that he couldn’t imagine it possible that he didn’t, just in one random disagreeing sentence? It was an embarrassment on top of the previous embarrassment. He was admitting (through a transparent, absurd lie) that he wanted to be seen as strong against Putin but didn’t have the guts to confront him at all.
Fast forward to 2025, and what a difference! We watched as Trump not only embraced Putin's talking points but publicly humiliated President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office for daring to suggest Putin might break a ceasefire agreement. Instead of Republican outrage, we saw:
JD Vance, now vice president, actively joined in the berating of a wartime ally, suggesting that not groveling sufficiently to the president was reason enough to show our ally to the door. A pro-Trump reporter had the audacity to criticize Zelenskyy for not wearing a formal suit during a war. GOP leadership like Speaker Johnson declared that "the days of America being taken advantage of and disrespected are OVER." And most tellingly, Lindsey Graham—the same senator who criticized Trump's Russia stance in 2018—not only suggested Zelenskyy should resign but said he had "never been more proud" of Trump than during this grotesque meeting.
The most telling detail from the meeting: when Zelenskyy reminded Trump that Russia has repeatedly broken agreements, Trump responded not by acknowledging this reality but by telling Zelenskyy "you don't have the cards right now" and accusing him of "gambling with World War Three." It is no longer about truth, but political games, and Republicans are cool with that.
This remarkable shift shows that Trump's calculus isn't more challenging—it's dramatically easier. The Republican party hasn't gained any actual trust for Russia, but they no longer see any incentive for questioning Trump's opinion on anything. The contrast between Graham's proud endorsement of Trump's behavior in 2025 versus his criticism in 2018 perfectly encapsulates this transformation. The party has completely realigned, abandoning its long-held adversarial stance toward Russia in favor of whatever position Trump takes. No more awkward splits, no more measured criticism, no more need for clumsy walk-backs. Russia is effectively now our ally.
The real calculus that's become challenging is for Ukraine—and by extension, for the entire post-WWII international order that has maintained relative peace in Europe for over 75 years.
"The Republican party hasn't gained any actual trust for Russia, but they no longer see any incentive for questioning Trump's opinion on anything."
🎯🎯🎯
"The coming days will reveal whether Washington recognizes Russia’s diplomatic chess game for what it is – and whether it has the skill and patience to outmaneuver Putin, who has always played the long game."
This is such a good summation of the place we find ourselves. It's a concerning trend, not just from Trump but from his administration, to publicly take Russia's claims at face-value and insist that the administration is clearly seeing the situation for what it is. Setting Tulsi Gabbard's long history aside, just recently she retweeted a post claiming that shutting down the USAGM (Voice of America, etc) was good because those media channels "perpetuated a pro-war narrative against Russia." With respect to DNI Gabbard...no Eastern European I know needs any American help to understand that Putin's Russian government is a serious threat. They were warning us about Russian state interference in elections over a decade ago because they've been dealing with it for even longer; Finland started teaching a media literacy curriculum in part to counter the steady stream of disinformation coming from the Russian state (and over here, of course, there was Tenet Media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tenet_Media_investigation) In a move that seriously annoyed VP Vance, the Romanian court recently vacated election results after evidence of significant interference from Russian sources. In what I'm sure is a *total* coincidence, in addition to the usual comments claiming that NATO started this or that anyone skeptical of these negotiations just wants "endless war," I've been seeing an uptick in social media comments that are suddenly very concerned about the importance of holding Ukrainian elections right now. I wonder why that could be...
I have a MAGA supporting cousin that insisted to me that Russians live “peaceful and fulfilling lives,” so it’s really no big deal for Ukraine to be taken over by them. It shocked me, but also broke my heart. It feels like such a reflection of the MAGA admiration and consent for authoritarian rule. And the insidious nature of Russian propaganda.
A few years ago I read a really good book about modern Russia: "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible" by Peter Pomerantsev (he has a second book out "This Is Not Propaganda" that I haven't read yet, but looks good). Basically he dives into the setting for Russia's current political state, the groundwork that was laid after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the challenges faced by a populace who went from hundreds of years of rule by the Tsars to immediately being ruled by dictators and then soon after being ruled by the strongman thugs who rose to power post-USSR. Authoritarianism is the only air that most have ever breathed.
I do believe, as I'm sure most do here, that the Russian people are largely good people who are largely leading peaceful and fulfilling lives. They are also victims of their government and, along with Ukraine and the rest of Europe, conceding to Putin's power will only make things worse for Russians in the long term.
Yes. I didn’t mean to imply that Russians as a people are bad or even that they aren’t mostly living peaceful lives (except, of course, for the ones that disagree with Putin that lose jobs, get imprisoned, or even killed). The concern I feel is the utter lack of respect for a people who want democracy and are fighting for it. Russians may feel mostly happy with their situation, but Ukrainians sure don’t.
I think most Russians are lacking food, jobs and adequate food and housing. The rich pro Putin Russians may enjoy these things, but I don’t think everyone does.
I also have a relative who touted the "you just want forever war" line to me recently in conversation. It broke my heart as well. This person is intelligent, kind, and thoughtful, but I hear them quoting company lines and it makes me sad and a little hopeless for change.
Read, “…dwindling Western military support,” as US support. The only thing I’d like to add to this excellent article is that the West is not united in “unsupporting” Ukraine.
Europe has always provided more support than the US, unlike some political talking points (aka lies). Europe has stepped up their support in response to the US abandoning their values and embracing Putin (switching teams).
Very interesting article. I truly fear for Ukraine…
This. And, as an extension, I fear for Europe more generally. I don't believe that Putin intends to stop with Ukraine. And I fear for the US. We should be supporting Ukraine as a democracy.
Trump will bend the knee and give Putin whatever he wants. 1) because he is too impatient to negotiate a real mutually beneficial ceasefire, and 2) dictators have to stick together or else they’d be alone.
YES. & I'd add: 3) Trump only understands power as a tool for dominance; he does not value mutuality or interdependence. The strong are entitled to overtake the weak, so naturally Putin gets Ukraine. It's the only logical conclusion.
Ugh, that last picture of Trump and Putin looking at each other completely ruined my breakfast.
Let’s also not forget a previous article where we learned about Ukrainian children being kidnapped and indoctrinated as Russians. That blew my mind. How is no one clanging the gong about that one in addition?
If Ukraine is handed to Russia. Putin won’t stop there and if he attacks a NATO country (Finland) then I guess we’ll see where 47’s regime true loyalties stand.
What does Putin have on Trump? I'm convinced that Trump has been laundering money for the Russian oligarchs through real estate and other deals since the 1980s.
Putin has something on trump. I am certain of this. Trump is not a smart person, he’s a bully who throws outlandish ideas out there to see what sticks. Russia does not just want Ukraine, in 5 years they will take the next country and so on until they are a power too big to control. Trump may be too stupid to understand this, but not everyone around him can also be that stupid. Someone has warned him of this and he’s still not budging. What we need is someone to find out what Putin has on him and bring it to light. We already know trump does not care about the people, just power and lining his own pockets. While I’m sure he loves the dictator aura Putin gives off, there is more to this.
“Putin has something on Trump…”, you mean like the story Russia made up regarding Hunter Biden’s laptop??!! Have ye not learned?
"[T]he signatories said they were expressing a genuine concern that went beyond who would win an election. And it wasn’t only those 51 former officials who were concerned about possible Russian attempts to smear Biden. NBC News reported in October 2020 that the CIA and other spy agencies gathered intelligence on Giuliani’s dealings with alleged Russian intelligence agents as he searched for dirt on Biden and passed his findings on to the Trump White House....In that context, the emergence of the laptop around the same time raised suspicions, especially because the New York Post reported that it obtained the material from Giuliani. ...
"It was Weiss [the lead prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case] who filed charges last week against Smirnov, accusing the informant of lying to the FBI when he relayed information that Joe and Hunter Biden had each accepted bribes of $5 million in 2015 from Ukrainian executives of Burisma, the company that paid Hunter Biden millions of dollars to sit on its board....In a filing this week seeking to revoke Smirnov’s bail, prosecutors said he had repeatedly “lied to his FBI Handler after a 10-year relationship where the two spoke nearly every day” — and that he had “extensive” contacts with Russian operatives." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/former-us-spies-warned-2020-hunter-biden-scandal-russian-fingerprints-rcna140240 (https://adfontesmedia.com/nbc-bias-and-reliability/)
I'm afraid the only thing that will save Ukraine is to agree to give up its natural resources and/or other assets. If Trump and his billionaire oil/gas/mineral extractors force Ukraine into a deal that will result in a ton of money for them, the U.S. just MIGHT hold Putin to the terms of any ceasefire or end to hostilities. It won't have anything to do with democracy or doing what's right or to save the brave Ukrainian people. It will simply be for the money.
The only peace Putin wants is total control of Ukraine. I am afraid Trump will hand it to him.