It’s astonishing that so many people believe in the financial genius of the guy who received a six figure income as a toddler, went bankrupt multiple times and became famous hosting a reality TV show rigged to make him appear to be a good businessman. Tariffs, especially in the chaotic, haphazard manner they’re being imposed, will not somehow magically bring back manufacturing. Announcements are painless and simple. Actual billion dollar investments in new manufacturing facilities are a whole different animal, especially in this climate, where a 3:00AM social media post could bring whatever economic structure you thought you were working in come crashing down. But that’s not even the main factor, A 2020 study from MIT and the Federal Reserve found that 85 per cent of job losses in manufacturing since 2000 were due to automation, not trade. The math is simple: factories today produce more goods with fewer workers, thanks to robotics, AI, and advanced production systems. That tide will never be turned back, no matter how much economic pain is inflicted on American consumers and consumers throughout the rest of the world.
This feels like a rhetorical question, but… is there a long-term plan? They claim to want to bring manufacturing to America, and per the announcements of a handful of companies cited, that effort seems to be working. But do Americans want to be manufacturing/factory workers? I haven’t seen any indication that those are preferred jobs over the way we currently do business. Do Americans want to pay more for American-made products? Seems unlikely. I get the sentiment, and I applaud the effort for “American-made” stuff. But does the country as a whole even want it anymore?
And I'd add, how many jobs are we really talking about. Isn't manufacturing being heavily automated and the jobs are actually pretty sophisticated now? I don't believe it's the assembly lines of the past.
Okay, I've done some more reading. Based on the articles linked by Gabe above, Hyundai's funding commitment references creation of 1300 jobs, TSMC's funding brings in 25,000 jobs, and Apple's funding brings in 20,000 jobs. These aren't nothing! But the funding commitments seem to be more heavily swayed toward capital investments than manufacturing and job creation.
This is all reminiscent of Trump's big announcement regarding the $10 billion Foxconn investment in Wisconsin in 2017, in the form of a factory that would be the "eighth wonder of the world." Foxconn promised to bring 13,000 manufacturing jobs back to the United States. In return, Wisconsin promised more than $4 billion in tax credits to Foxconn, cleared land by pushing people out of their homes, and diverted water from Lake Michigan to support the factory. Of course the factory never materialized. Instead, last May, President Biden traveled to the same site to announce a plan by Microsoft to build a $3.3 billion data center, expected to result in 2,300 construction jobs and 2,000 permanent jobs in the area. This structure is actually being built and Microsoft has announced plans to make it even bigger. We can't forget that Trump never got any infrastructure legislation at all passed and much of what may be happening now is Biden Admin. legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Act, CHIPS Act, etc., all finally bearing fruit. Amazing what can happen when the parties in Congress and the White House can all negotiate amongst themselves to actually pass legislation to get things done.
And in the case of TSMC they CHIPS act spurred the investment in Arizona, predating Mr. trump’s election. (He wants to dismantle the CHIPS act by the way) and Apple was already planning their investment. So maybe Hyundai was incentivized to manufacture here because of tariffs but others were not.
Thanks for digging in on that. I think we can all agree 50K jobs is a really good thing! Will it make up for the tens of thousands losing their jobs each day because of DOGE and the uncertainty in the economy slowing down hiring? I guess only time will tell.
Losing all these jobs means no one is there helping people either. I had to call a federal office a week or so ago and got a message that my hold time was 348 MINUTES! Yeah, like I have 5 hours to hang out on hold.
I don't know how you can assume that when the Trump Admin. has gone to the Supreme Court to get its sign-off on cutting hundreds of millions of dollars for teacher training, even amidst a nationwide teacher shortage. Many other workforce training programs in manufacturing, electronics and other sectors are similarly being cut or targeted.
Arizona schools are designing programs to prepare students for these jobs as well as our community colleges but this doesn’t help an established worker who will need to switch industries. See Chandler Unified School District for example.
I’m curious too even if plants are brought here will that be the entire process? Or will there still be pieces done elsewhere or parts imported from elsewhere. It might reduce the overall price but it seems like there is still potential for parts to need to be made elsewhere still. We’re working from a place of consuming less right now. Our car is about 10 years old so we’re going to do our best to keep it up so we get many more years out of it. Same with appliances. I know overall it said people are still spending but I know we have cut back in a lot of places.
I think it's just about impossible to expect that every piece will be made here. At the very minimum we have to consider how many of our products include batteries and computer chips and other components that require the use of rare earth minerals that simply aren't available in any quantity here in the US. If they are imagining a solely US based manufacturing economy it is because they are imagining an economy of the 1800's in which the available products were much simpler.
I think that's why I'm having a hard time understanding how even if *some* manufacturing is brought here it's not going to reduce the impact from tariffs as much as some in the administration are saying. Obviously this is all conjecture because we don't even know what he's even going to do until he actually does it. But that as the article pointed out is part of the problem with people's apprehension over the economy. Things feel uncertain.
Right now, to be labeled "Made in America," it just has to be assembled here. For example, many moons ago, I worked for Compaq (now HP). They sourced components from all over -- some as near as Austin (less than 200 miles from the CPQ facility), but most coming from China, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. This was largely because the US doesn't have the raw materials (lithium, for example) to source it all here. So they'd buy the components from all over rhe world and assemble our "Made in the USA" computers here in Houston. And honestly, that's how it should be in a modern global economy. I don't believe any country (at least not as modernized one) can operate in a silo anymore.
Kudos to you and others (my family included) who see value in choosing to repair & maintain rather than replace. We have become too much of a throw away society. I remember when my parents and grands bought quality upfront and held on to appliances, automobiles, home decor & furnishings until they were no longer usable. We have traded all of this for cheap made, replaceable junk. We need to decide where our priorities and futures lie. I would love to see the manufacturing of these items brought back to the US. But more importantly I want to see our pharmaceutical and food industries come back here. We should have NEVER allowed these to be produced in the likes of China.
There was a documentary on Netflix (I think) that was all about consuming. It was shocking to see how people, mostly Americans, buy buy buy. And the products have been purposefully made to break down so we have to buy more. I was talking to someone just today who said her dryer was not working right and is 5 years old. The repair guy said well we could fix it for $300 and it won’t last much longer or you could just get a new one for a few more hundred dollars. It’s ridiculous!
You are so right! We purchased a refrigerator during lockdown and we replaced it after only two years! Our repairman told us the same. On the other hand, my parents had their original stove for over 30 years with daily use!! I would live to see this pendulum swing back and soon!
Yikes!! My fridges are 16 and 20 years old! My dishwasher is almost 8 but has started to leak. Our stove had to be replaced two years ago so jt was 18 years old.
I’m naturally frugal and refuse to buy anything unless I absolutely have to. I don’t care if it’s out of style! I will, however, pay top dollar for quality. I just wish the companies had enough integrity to make quality products that are made to last.
That is a goal for the US for sure. One that would take significant time and major investsments to make happen. I can see where it would be a goal to work towards. More than likely we’ll still have a large number of imports even if we did move some manufacturing back. Unless we convince society as a whole to change what and how they consume.
There are definitely pros and cons to the way we as a society consume goods. It’s taken decades, it will almost be a century since WWII soon, to happen. Unraveling that or convincing people to change will take significant time as well.
Make it make sense 😩. How is there not going to be trade imbalances when most of our trading partners have much lower populations??? It’s so exasperating to have someone leading the country who literally has the thought process of an 8 year old 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
I’m going to be pretty out there with this theory- is it even about the economy? It feels more like he is steadily working towards isolating us from other countries especially our allies. He is not focused on anything that will make America successful and he pays for this by pandering to those who want to vilify specific groups within our country. We become an autocracy whose “allies” are autocrats.
I keep thinking this same thing. Because the reason jobs were outsourced in the first place was to make people like his cronies richer with cheaper labor and material costs. What's in it for them to bring it back here? The whole argument hinges on the belief that rich people want to see a thriving middle class and I am skeptical of that to begin with!
I'm struck by how this piece captures the genuine anxiety Americans are feeling about "Liberation Day," but I think we're underselling just how remarkable it is that people are this worried about Trump's economic policies. Remember, this is the guy who campaigned on economic expertise despite his numerous bankruptcies, failed Trump Steaks, defunct and fraudulent Trump University, even more fraudulent and dissolved Trump Foundation, and the Trump Taj Mahal disaster. And then his first term was filled with unfulfilled economic promises – tax cuts would pay for themselves, trade wars were "easy to win," coal jobs would come roaring back, and GDP would hit 4, 5, even 6% growth. None materialized, yet voters consistently gave him high marks on the economy. So for consumer confidence to plummet to its lowest point since the pandemic suggests unprecedented alarm.
I'm also skeptical about Powell's measured comments – can anyone in government speak freely about potential economic disasters when criticizing the administration will get you replaced with a MAGA loyalist? I can’t say for certain that is what’s happening, but… there isn’t much incentive for him to speak pure truth if it conflicts with the narrative, right?
I keep thinking about a recent interaction with my Ukrainian friend and her husband. She is a small business owner, very hardworking and no-nonsense. He is very friendly, but gives me “podcast bro” vibes, talking a mile a minute about whatever was on his mind when he finished the last piece of media he consumed. I asked how they are doing, expecting small talk. Out of nowhere, he started defending reciprocal tariffs: "You know, I’m a free thinker. I don't believe the hype from either side. They're just making things fair instead of accepting abuse from our supposed allies." I caught my friend's expression – clear disappointment at her husband's casual support for the Trump narrative, especially given Ukraine's precarious situation. But his comment made me realize I don't fully understand the nuances here.
Are reciprocal tariffs inherently sensible? What is the origin of these tariffs we are going to reciprocate? Is the administration cherry-picking which tariffs against us to highlight while ignoring ones where America might be the aggressor? Aren’t trade imbalances naturally going to happen one way or another, and is it not surprising that the richest countries buy more than they sell? I want to learn more so I can have a good faith conversation with what the podcast bros are saying. I might do some digging today.
Oh, and one small correction – stagflation actually requires high unemployment, not low unemployment as mentioned in the article. I was confused and had to confirm elsewhere.
Like tariffs , bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US should be targeted. A car made in the USA is going to cost more than one made in Mexico. It's going to cost more to repair if the parts are all American made. This means these cars are going to cost more to insure. Do Americans really want this? I believe manufacturing of things essential to national security should be the priority.
I understand that anecdotal data doesn't always scale, but I also think this "low unemployment" does not reflect reality. I look around me and everyone I know is out of work or expects to be laid off. It's taking more than a year for people to find jobs that pay less than their previous role and their unemployment benefits are expiring, they're defaulting on their mortgages, etc. Having tens of thousands of federal workers dumped onto the market all at once is exacerbating the problem. Recent graduates can't find work (similar to 2007). It's BAD out here.
So I'm not sure how the government calculates these numbers, but what I'm seeing on the ground is higher unemployment than I've seen in my 20-year career.
Yes, there was an Atlantic article recently about how no one is leaving jobs right now - so unemployment looks low but it may actually be because everyone is trapped in their current situation and there is nowhere to go (which also means there aren't open jobs and it's totally stagnant!)
Yes! And the last time this happened, businesses learned just how much they could exploit their trapped employees and jobs changed permanently. Everyone saw a dramatic increase in responsibilities, lower wages, an unreasonable amount of education / experience required, benefits stripped. I was searching for work during that era and I watched in real time how job postings changed. It was like I passed into an alternate universe overnight.
I'm discouraged. This feels like the latest in a series of things that are nonsensical action plans being put into place just because they're Trump's pet projects or ideas. I understand that he has an America first policy, but we live in a world where interconnectedness is not only seemingly unavoidable, but positive! Being able to make and get things from other places (like French cheeses, Japanese cars, Etsy products from all around the world, etc.) is one of the cool parts of being a citizen of the world today. Again, I just wish that there would be some kind of check or balance imposed on this kind of rhetoric rather than continual power grabs that have their biggest negative impact on the people they purport to help.
The world is getting smaller. Cutting off global trade is short-sighted and foolish. We don't have access to every raw material to manufacture the products we consume in the US here. Example: Coffee beans. We can't just decide to "grow them here." There are only a small handful of places in the US with a climate conducive to growing coffee beans, and they wouldn't be able to produce enough to meet US consumer demand. Another example: lumber. Sure, we can grow plenty of pine trees here (the main type of lumber we use in this country), but do you know how long it takes to grow a pine big enough to get good lumber from? Hint: No one reading this will be alive to realize lumber benefits from trees planted now.
Further, you can't just snap your fingers and have manufacturing plants for cars, electronics, and so on overnight. That takes real estate, time, and a lot of money. And the reality is, it's all well and good to say, "We should build everything here," but the reality is, no one wants manufacturing plants built in their community. They're noisy, loud, and produce a lot of pollution (generally speaking).
Meanwhile, as we wait for these plants to find homes and get built, prices will skyrocket from tariffs, and no one is going to magically drop those prices back down when and if all those manufacturing facilities get up and running. No, that will just be the "new normal" cost, and any savings from manufacturing domestically will be passed on to execs, board members, and stockholders. 🤬
really helpful article. Everytime I read a quote from Trump though.... I don't see evidence of cognitive ability... which is truly disturbing. Not that I saw cognitive skills leading up to the election. I was very doubtful about the whiny America-is -such- a -victim revenge tariffs when he first started talking about it.
I had a big long reply written out about all the ways Ts tariff plans are probably going to leave us worse off, but I will just say this instead: this tariff tactic is myopic, creates a false binary of our global economy and is just plain dumb.
I am convinced this is all a plan to create a larger division of wealth in our country; keeping the poor poor and to actually create a larger society of poverty. It will be easier to do becoming isolationists. My question to Sharon, being our history guru, is how do we stop this? Voting him out seems inevitable (if he leaves this time) but that's a very long 4 years away. I fear our country will look VERY different by then (and not in a good way). :(
The manufacturing of goods is not an activity that has happened in a bubble. If we look at the evolution of manufacturing from a geopolitical/economic perspective (...and, is there any other way to look at it?) it's simply ludicrous to think that the U.S. could return to the post-WWII 1950's and '60's. Due to the strong GDP/GNP growth in the U.S., the natural consequence has been continued and sustained increase in the cost-of-living. This precipitates an increase in average wages. With "labor" being the greatest expense category for a manufacturing business--it only makes sense that they sought foreign locations where they could cut that specific cost by as much as 90%. Now, 30-40 years later...Trump thinks that tariffs are going to bring manufacturing back en masse? And, if it did--two things are certain: 1) With the exception of high-skilled AI/Robotics technicians, it would not create a significant number of jobs. or 2) If manufacturers decided to go "old school", and have human labor working assembly lines--these would not be the high-paying jobs of the past. It would be akin to immigrant farm labor. OH...WAIT! Trump is in the process of deporting America's 'cheap' labor (of which we all benefit from). I think it's easy to conclude that Trump paid people to take his classes/exams for him at Penn. (Economics degree? Yeah...right).
Americans are not excited about "Liberation Day" because we have a basic grasp of how world economies work and access to the news. While the goal to have manufacturing is a worthy goal, the infrastructure does not currently exist. So the tariffs WILL make good more expensive. Companies who build facilities in the US will certainly also surely pass the cost of building those facilities onto consumers. This is a double whammy on the American consumer.
The other part of this is all the uncertainty and confusion. The tariffs get announced in the morning and then *sike* removed a few hours later. The instability is upending the economy. At this point that has to be a strategy. The oligarchs are getting richer off the stock market plunges and prices are going up for us Average Joes.
I don't care how much nonsense Karoline Leavitt spouts at the podium or how many new cool names they come up with for tariffs. If it looks like BS and smells like BS it is BS.
Well and with such uncertainty about the tariffs, why would a company want to spends years and millions to hundreds of millions to build a factory here when tariffs could be cancelled tomorrow and it will still be cheaper to manufacture overseas.
If I was a company no way would I plan a large scale investment like a brand new factory when the tariffs may never be enacted or cancelled by the next president! These factories may not even be built by the time Donald leaves office - this is not an overnight or even a 1-2 year plan.
All that will happen is the working class family will suffer and billionaires will be richer.
I’m no economist but I trust the experts. So many of them warned us that a second Trump administration was not good for the economy.
I am a consumer though and have been way more mindful of what I spend now, for a variety of reasons. I want to support companies who are dedicated to DEI, I want to support local shops, and I am personally tired of mindless consumption. I know there is a growing trend of people who are now turning towards not shopping as often…so I do think that study from 2023 may be too outdated.
I am interested in seeing if more production can occur here. But who will work there is a great question others have asked.
I also know the Chips Act was a big deal here in AZ. It’s crazy though-so many people move here and we are in a desert with major drought issues. Such problems!!
The thing is: Even if we move all manufacturing capacity to the US, we will still have to purchase raw materials from abroad. There is no “American made” future in which we no longer need things from abroad and the tariffs no longer affect us.
It’s astonishing that so many people believe in the financial genius of the guy who received a six figure income as a toddler, went bankrupt multiple times and became famous hosting a reality TV show rigged to make him appear to be a good businessman. Tariffs, especially in the chaotic, haphazard manner they’re being imposed, will not somehow magically bring back manufacturing. Announcements are painless and simple. Actual billion dollar investments in new manufacturing facilities are a whole different animal, especially in this climate, where a 3:00AM social media post could bring whatever economic structure you thought you were working in come crashing down. But that’s not even the main factor, A 2020 study from MIT and the Federal Reserve found that 85 per cent of job losses in manufacturing since 2000 were due to automation, not trade. The math is simple: factories today produce more goods with fewer workers, thanks to robotics, AI, and advanced production systems. That tide will never be turned back, no matter how much economic pain is inflicted on American consumers and consumers throughout the rest of the world.
This feels like a rhetorical question, but… is there a long-term plan? They claim to want to bring manufacturing to America, and per the announcements of a handful of companies cited, that effort seems to be working. But do Americans want to be manufacturing/factory workers? I haven’t seen any indication that those are preferred jobs over the way we currently do business. Do Americans want to pay more for American-made products? Seems unlikely. I get the sentiment, and I applaud the effort for “American-made” stuff. But does the country as a whole even want it anymore?
And I'd add, how many jobs are we really talking about. Isn't manufacturing being heavily automated and the jobs are actually pretty sophisticated now? I don't believe it's the assembly lines of the past.
Okay, I've done some more reading. Based on the articles linked by Gabe above, Hyundai's funding commitment references creation of 1300 jobs, TSMC's funding brings in 25,000 jobs, and Apple's funding brings in 20,000 jobs. These aren't nothing! But the funding commitments seem to be more heavily swayed toward capital investments than manufacturing and job creation.
This is all reminiscent of Trump's big announcement regarding the $10 billion Foxconn investment in Wisconsin in 2017, in the form of a factory that would be the "eighth wonder of the world." Foxconn promised to bring 13,000 manufacturing jobs back to the United States. In return, Wisconsin promised more than $4 billion in tax credits to Foxconn, cleared land by pushing people out of their homes, and diverted water from Lake Michigan to support the factory. Of course the factory never materialized. Instead, last May, President Biden traveled to the same site to announce a plan by Microsoft to build a $3.3 billion data center, expected to result in 2,300 construction jobs and 2,000 permanent jobs in the area. This structure is actually being built and Microsoft has announced plans to make it even bigger. We can't forget that Trump never got any infrastructure legislation at all passed and much of what may be happening now is Biden Admin. legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Act, CHIPS Act, etc., all finally bearing fruit. Amazing what can happen when the parties in Congress and the White House can all negotiate amongst themselves to actually pass legislation to get things done.
And in the case of TSMC they CHIPS act spurred the investment in Arizona, predating Mr. trump’s election. (He wants to dismantle the CHIPS act by the way) and Apple was already planning their investment. So maybe Hyundai was incentivized to manufacture here because of tariffs but others were not.
Thanks for this. I should have known Trump's admin would be claiming credit where it doesn't exist...
Thanks for digging in on that. I think we can all agree 50K jobs is a really good thing! Will it make up for the tens of thousands losing their jobs each day because of DOGE and the uncertainty in the economy slowing down hiring? I guess only time will tell.
I agree jobs are a good thing. But those losing DOGE jobs might not necessarily have the skills to just go into any job.
Losing all these jobs means no one is there helping people either. I had to call a federal office a week or so ago and got a message that my hold time was 348 MINUTES! Yeah, like I have 5 hours to hang out on hold.
If willing, I’m sure training will be available for those seeking employment.
I don't know how you can assume that when the Trump Admin. has gone to the Supreme Court to get its sign-off on cutting hundreds of millions of dollars for teacher training, even amidst a nationwide teacher shortage. Many other workforce training programs in manufacturing, electronics and other sectors are similarly being cut or targeted.
Arizona schools are designing programs to prepare students for these jobs as well as our community colleges but this doesn’t help an established worker who will need to switch industries. See Chandler Unified School District for example.
That’s a great point.
I’m curious too even if plants are brought here will that be the entire process? Or will there still be pieces done elsewhere or parts imported from elsewhere. It might reduce the overall price but it seems like there is still potential for parts to need to be made elsewhere still. We’re working from a place of consuming less right now. Our car is about 10 years old so we’re going to do our best to keep it up so we get many more years out of it. Same with appliances. I know overall it said people are still spending but I know we have cut back in a lot of places.
I think it's just about impossible to expect that every piece will be made here. At the very minimum we have to consider how many of our products include batteries and computer chips and other components that require the use of rare earth minerals that simply aren't available in any quantity here in the US. If they are imagining a solely US based manufacturing economy it is because they are imagining an economy of the 1800's in which the available products were much simpler.
Or maybe that’s why Trump keeps trying to plunder the rare earth materials of Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine? 🤦🏼♀️
I think that's why I'm having a hard time understanding how even if *some* manufacturing is brought here it's not going to reduce the impact from tariffs as much as some in the administration are saying. Obviously this is all conjecture because we don't even know what he's even going to do until he actually does it. But that as the article pointed out is part of the problem with people's apprehension over the economy. Things feel uncertain.
Completely agree.
Right now, to be labeled "Made in America," it just has to be assembled here. For example, many moons ago, I worked for Compaq (now HP). They sourced components from all over -- some as near as Austin (less than 200 miles from the CPQ facility), but most coming from China, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. This was largely because the US doesn't have the raw materials (lithium, for example) to source it all here. So they'd buy the components from all over rhe world and assemble our "Made in the USA" computers here in Houston. And honestly, that's how it should be in a modern global economy. I don't believe any country (at least not as modernized one) can operate in a silo anymore.
Kudos to you and others (my family included) who see value in choosing to repair & maintain rather than replace. We have become too much of a throw away society. I remember when my parents and grands bought quality upfront and held on to appliances, automobiles, home decor & furnishings until they were no longer usable. We have traded all of this for cheap made, replaceable junk. We need to decide where our priorities and futures lie. I would love to see the manufacturing of these items brought back to the US. But more importantly I want to see our pharmaceutical and food industries come back here. We should have NEVER allowed these to be produced in the likes of China.
There was a documentary on Netflix (I think) that was all about consuming. It was shocking to see how people, mostly Americans, buy buy buy. And the products have been purposefully made to break down so we have to buy more. I was talking to someone just today who said her dryer was not working right and is 5 years old. The repair guy said well we could fix it for $300 and it won’t last much longer or you could just get a new one for a few more hundred dollars. It’s ridiculous!
You are so right! We purchased a refrigerator during lockdown and we replaced it after only two years! Our repairman told us the same. On the other hand, my parents had their original stove for over 30 years with daily use!! I would live to see this pendulum swing back and soon!
Yikes!! My fridges are 16 and 20 years old! My dishwasher is almost 8 but has started to leak. Our stove had to be replaced two years ago so jt was 18 years old.
I’m naturally frugal and refuse to buy anything unless I absolutely have to. I don’t care if it’s out of style! I will, however, pay top dollar for quality. I just wish the companies had enough integrity to make quality products that are made to last.
That is a goal for the US for sure. One that would take significant time and major investsments to make happen. I can see where it would be a goal to work towards. More than likely we’ll still have a large number of imports even if we did move some manufacturing back. Unless we convince society as a whole to change what and how they consume.
There are definitely pros and cons to the way we as a society consume goods. It’s taken decades, it will almost be a century since WWII soon, to happen. Unraveling that or convincing people to change will take significant time as well.
Make it make sense 😩. How is there not going to be trade imbalances when most of our trading partners have much lower populations??? It’s so exasperating to have someone leading the country who literally has the thought process of an 8 year old 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
Also, Americans buy a lot more stuff than citizens of other countries. Fair trade does not mean equal.
This was my thought exactly. How would we ever have an equal trade with a country that is the size of one of our states or smaller? It's impossible.
That's an insult to 8 year olds!
I’m going to be pretty out there with this theory- is it even about the economy? It feels more like he is steadily working towards isolating us from other countries especially our allies. He is not focused on anything that will make America successful and he pays for this by pandering to those who want to vilify specific groups within our country. We become an autocracy whose “allies” are autocrats.
I keep thinking this same thing. Because the reason jobs were outsourced in the first place was to make people like his cronies richer with cheaper labor and material costs. What's in it for them to bring it back here? The whole argument hinges on the belief that rich people want to see a thriving middle class and I am skeptical of that to begin with!
what I'm thinking as well.
I'm struck by how this piece captures the genuine anxiety Americans are feeling about "Liberation Day," but I think we're underselling just how remarkable it is that people are this worried about Trump's economic policies. Remember, this is the guy who campaigned on economic expertise despite his numerous bankruptcies, failed Trump Steaks, defunct and fraudulent Trump University, even more fraudulent and dissolved Trump Foundation, and the Trump Taj Mahal disaster. And then his first term was filled with unfulfilled economic promises – tax cuts would pay for themselves, trade wars were "easy to win," coal jobs would come roaring back, and GDP would hit 4, 5, even 6% growth. None materialized, yet voters consistently gave him high marks on the economy. So for consumer confidence to plummet to its lowest point since the pandemic suggests unprecedented alarm.
I'm also skeptical about Powell's measured comments – can anyone in government speak freely about potential economic disasters when criticizing the administration will get you replaced with a MAGA loyalist? I can’t say for certain that is what’s happening, but… there isn’t much incentive for him to speak pure truth if it conflicts with the narrative, right?
I keep thinking about a recent interaction with my Ukrainian friend and her husband. She is a small business owner, very hardworking and no-nonsense. He is very friendly, but gives me “podcast bro” vibes, talking a mile a minute about whatever was on his mind when he finished the last piece of media he consumed. I asked how they are doing, expecting small talk. Out of nowhere, he started defending reciprocal tariffs: "You know, I’m a free thinker. I don't believe the hype from either side. They're just making things fair instead of accepting abuse from our supposed allies." I caught my friend's expression – clear disappointment at her husband's casual support for the Trump narrative, especially given Ukraine's precarious situation. But his comment made me realize I don't fully understand the nuances here.
Are reciprocal tariffs inherently sensible? What is the origin of these tariffs we are going to reciprocate? Is the administration cherry-picking which tariffs against us to highlight while ignoring ones where America might be the aggressor? Aren’t trade imbalances naturally going to happen one way or another, and is it not surprising that the richest countries buy more than they sell? I want to learn more so I can have a good faith conversation with what the podcast bros are saying. I might do some digging today.
Oh, and one small correction – stagflation actually requires high unemployment, not low unemployment as mentioned in the article. I was confused and had to confirm elsewhere.
I wondered about stagflation and low unemployment as well. I actually re-read that a few times. Thanks for the clarification.
Like tariffs , bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US should be targeted. A car made in the USA is going to cost more than one made in Mexico. It's going to cost more to repair if the parts are all American made. This means these cars are going to cost more to insure. Do Americans really want this? I believe manufacturing of things essential to national security should be the priority.
I understand that anecdotal data doesn't always scale, but I also think this "low unemployment" does not reflect reality. I look around me and everyone I know is out of work or expects to be laid off. It's taking more than a year for people to find jobs that pay less than their previous role and their unemployment benefits are expiring, they're defaulting on their mortgages, etc. Having tens of thousands of federal workers dumped onto the market all at once is exacerbating the problem. Recent graduates can't find work (similar to 2007). It's BAD out here.
So I'm not sure how the government calculates these numbers, but what I'm seeing on the ground is higher unemployment than I've seen in my 20-year career.
Yes, there was an Atlantic article recently about how no one is leaving jobs right now - so unemployment looks low but it may actually be because everyone is trapped in their current situation and there is nowhere to go (which also means there aren't open jobs and it's totally stagnant!)
Yes! And the last time this happened, businesses learned just how much they could exploit their trapped employees and jobs changed permanently. Everyone saw a dramatic increase in responsibilities, lower wages, an unreasonable amount of education / experience required, benefits stripped. I was searching for work during that era and I watched in real time how job postings changed. It was like I passed into an alternate universe overnight.
I'm discouraged. This feels like the latest in a series of things that are nonsensical action plans being put into place just because they're Trump's pet projects or ideas. I understand that he has an America first policy, but we live in a world where interconnectedness is not only seemingly unavoidable, but positive! Being able to make and get things from other places (like French cheeses, Japanese cars, Etsy products from all around the world, etc.) is one of the cool parts of being a citizen of the world today. Again, I just wish that there would be some kind of check or balance imposed on this kind of rhetoric rather than continual power grabs that have their biggest negative impact on the people they purport to help.
The world is getting smaller. Cutting off global trade is short-sighted and foolish. We don't have access to every raw material to manufacture the products we consume in the US here. Example: Coffee beans. We can't just decide to "grow them here." There are only a small handful of places in the US with a climate conducive to growing coffee beans, and they wouldn't be able to produce enough to meet US consumer demand. Another example: lumber. Sure, we can grow plenty of pine trees here (the main type of lumber we use in this country), but do you know how long it takes to grow a pine big enough to get good lumber from? Hint: No one reading this will be alive to realize lumber benefits from trees planted now.
Further, you can't just snap your fingers and have manufacturing plants for cars, electronics, and so on overnight. That takes real estate, time, and a lot of money. And the reality is, it's all well and good to say, "We should build everything here," but the reality is, no one wants manufacturing plants built in their community. They're noisy, loud, and produce a lot of pollution (generally speaking).
Meanwhile, as we wait for these plants to find homes and get built, prices will skyrocket from tariffs, and no one is going to magically drop those prices back down when and if all those manufacturing facilities get up and running. No, that will just be the "new normal" cost, and any savings from manufacturing domestically will be passed on to execs, board members, and stockholders. 🤬
really helpful article. Everytime I read a quote from Trump though.... I don't see evidence of cognitive ability... which is truly disturbing. Not that I saw cognitive skills leading up to the election. I was very doubtful about the whiny America-is -such- a -victim revenge tariffs when he first started talking about it.
I had a big long reply written out about all the ways Ts tariff plans are probably going to leave us worse off, but I will just say this instead: this tariff tactic is myopic, creates a false binary of our global economy and is just plain dumb.
I am convinced this is all a plan to create a larger division of wealth in our country; keeping the poor poor and to actually create a larger society of poverty. It will be easier to do becoming isolationists. My question to Sharon, being our history guru, is how do we stop this? Voting him out seems inevitable (if he leaves this time) but that's a very long 4 years away. I fear our country will look VERY different by then (and not in a good way). :(
The manufacturing of goods is not an activity that has happened in a bubble. If we look at the evolution of manufacturing from a geopolitical/economic perspective (...and, is there any other way to look at it?) it's simply ludicrous to think that the U.S. could return to the post-WWII 1950's and '60's. Due to the strong GDP/GNP growth in the U.S., the natural consequence has been continued and sustained increase in the cost-of-living. This precipitates an increase in average wages. With "labor" being the greatest expense category for a manufacturing business--it only makes sense that they sought foreign locations where they could cut that specific cost by as much as 90%. Now, 30-40 years later...Trump thinks that tariffs are going to bring manufacturing back en masse? And, if it did--two things are certain: 1) With the exception of high-skilled AI/Robotics technicians, it would not create a significant number of jobs. or 2) If manufacturers decided to go "old school", and have human labor working assembly lines--these would not be the high-paying jobs of the past. It would be akin to immigrant farm labor. OH...WAIT! Trump is in the process of deporting America's 'cheap' labor (of which we all benefit from). I think it's easy to conclude that Trump paid people to take his classes/exams for him at Penn. (Economics degree? Yeah...right).
Americans are not excited about "Liberation Day" because we have a basic grasp of how world economies work and access to the news. While the goal to have manufacturing is a worthy goal, the infrastructure does not currently exist. So the tariffs WILL make good more expensive. Companies who build facilities in the US will certainly also surely pass the cost of building those facilities onto consumers. This is a double whammy on the American consumer.
The other part of this is all the uncertainty and confusion. The tariffs get announced in the morning and then *sike* removed a few hours later. The instability is upending the economy. At this point that has to be a strategy. The oligarchs are getting richer off the stock market plunges and prices are going up for us Average Joes.
I don't care how much nonsense Karoline Leavitt spouts at the podium or how many new cool names they come up with for tariffs. If it looks like BS and smells like BS it is BS.
Well and with such uncertainty about the tariffs, why would a company want to spends years and millions to hundreds of millions to build a factory here when tariffs could be cancelled tomorrow and it will still be cheaper to manufacture overseas.
If I was a company no way would I plan a large scale investment like a brand new factory when the tariffs may never be enacted or cancelled by the next president! These factories may not even be built by the time Donald leaves office - this is not an overnight or even a 1-2 year plan.
All that will happen is the working class family will suffer and billionaires will be richer.
I’m no economist but I trust the experts. So many of them warned us that a second Trump administration was not good for the economy.
I am a consumer though and have been way more mindful of what I spend now, for a variety of reasons. I want to support companies who are dedicated to DEI, I want to support local shops, and I am personally tired of mindless consumption. I know there is a growing trend of people who are now turning towards not shopping as often…so I do think that study from 2023 may be too outdated.
I am interested in seeing if more production can occur here. But who will work there is a great question others have asked.
I also know the Chips Act was a big deal here in AZ. It’s crazy though-so many people move here and we are in a desert with major drought issues. Such problems!!
Same in Texas. Our water projections are dire in the central Hill country. Guess where Samsung and Apple… Are coming? Or expanding? Austin area !
The thing is: Even if we move all manufacturing capacity to the US, we will still have to purchase raw materials from abroad. There is no “American made” future in which we no longer need things from abroad and the tariffs no longer affect us.