1) It does seem like polls are really tools to be used by candidates and support/opposition groups. You can't be everywhere at once, so polling helps narrow the playing field for those in the campaign to focus their efforts. Similarly as voters who might want to join the campaign efforts, polls could indicate where to focus your donation of time or money.
But don't ever let polls discourage you from participating in the voting process. If polls are ultimately discouraging participation, then as voters we would do well to ignore the polls and just show up to vote our values. 👍 We will all know the results once the votes are cast, counted, and certified. ❤️
2) I wanted to say big thanks for launching the voter resources on your site. The night it dropped I was up for 2 hours researching my State Propositions. It's a very user friendly and inviting space (without ads ‼️).
1) I’d love to hear you interview someone from a reputable polling company. Do that in your spare time. 🤣🙃😉🥰
2) Also, I’m concerned about possible intimidation or violence occurring this year at the polls. Is there any data out there on how election volunteers will be protected or are they being trained for “what if” circumstances?
Thank you and your team for all of the work you do to educate all of us! 👏🏻
Thank you SO much for this on National Voter Registration day!
I have always voted in person. But it has occurred to me a lot of things could keep me from the poll on Election Day. As a member of the League of Women Voters, I always urge people to make a voting plan. So this year, I plan to vote “First Available.” We have Choices! If you decide that’s the right Choice for you, too, check your local election board’s website, and find out when no-excuse in-person voting is available. Whatever you choose, thank you for voting!
When I was teaching--during an election year--I started my government class each day with FiveThirtyEight. We checked for daily swings, and overall trends--then discussed the "whys" of it all. According to students, this was their favorite activity. Almost wished we had a general election every year. (jk)
I regularly am asked to participate in IPSOS polls. I'm registered with the company and they have my profile. I am asked qualifying questions and am declined when they already have enough participants that are, for example, female over 55. The polls are not always political and are sometimes sponsored but it's always disclosed up front. Legit polling companies never ask for money or personal info like SS# or bank#'s. Occasionally they will ask if they can follow up by phone but that's entirely optional.
Since I started following the polls in 2012, it seems like they've been off every election. They projected the Romney/Obama race to be much closer than it was, predicted Hillary would win, and in 2020, gave Trump more of an advantage in swing states. Your comment about Clinton voters staying home makes sense, but I just want to know how much stock to put in any of these polls. Are there any you trust that you check regularly?
edited to add that i'm trying not to pay too much attention to the polls because what matters is who ends up voting on the day/absentee, not what people say they're going to do. it's hard to avoid hearing about it, though.
orig comment:
slight tangent but related: i'm a member of pew's american trends panel and the email just before the one linking to this post was for the latest survey :)
they sent me something in the mail about three years ago, and i investigated it thoroughly before signing up. once or twice a month, i get an email with a link to a survey. i think that the ATP is separate from state-by-state political polling, but it's also possible they pull out results from people who they know live in certain states and use that. i'm truly not sure how that part works.
in addition to frequent political questions, they ask about the full gamut of societal issues — AI, self-driving cars, religion, immigration, spirituality, parenthood/whether or not you want to be a parent, relationships, etc.
every time i see a pew survey mentioned in a major news article, i click on the link to look at when/how the survey was conducted and i'm often part of the surveyed group (they don't give every survey to everyone). it's an awesome feeling to see my actual opinion reflected in the news, whether i'm on the minority or majority side of an issue.
Pollsters aren't always unbiased either! I remember getting a call from one and she was asking if I was going to support a local proposition and as the pollster read it, she kept saying, "Wow, that's a great one! It actually does something!" As if I was going to respond that I wasn't voting for it after that 🤣😜
This is really great info- also important to remember that pollsters are different from campaign volunteers who may call asking you for your support and/or if you have a voting plan.
Have you interviewed Nate Silver? Would love to hear you engage with him on your podcast or here!
I think that most people are sick of polls and being survey on everything. "How would you rate your experience" about everything is wearing really thin with me. So I ignore all of it.
That said I think that the only people who answer political polls are highly motivated by their political beliefs in other words fired up by whatever "news" they consume.
Last election was very close in some states but not overall. One third of eligible voters didn't vote.
I think pollsters generally do the best they can and few may be biased but I'm not sure pollsters are getting a real representative sample by polling people who agree to be polled. That is why they have been less successful lately.
I am hesitant to participate in any poll for fear that my information will then be used to remove my voter registration. Prob not a real fear but I don’t want to help anyone who is inclined to do such things…
1) It does seem like polls are really tools to be used by candidates and support/opposition groups. You can't be everywhere at once, so polling helps narrow the playing field for those in the campaign to focus their efforts. Similarly as voters who might want to join the campaign efforts, polls could indicate where to focus your donation of time or money.
But don't ever let polls discourage you from participating in the voting process. If polls are ultimately discouraging participation, then as voters we would do well to ignore the polls and just show up to vote our values. 👍 We will all know the results once the votes are cast, counted, and certified. ❤️
2) I wanted to say big thanks for launching the voter resources on your site. The night it dropped I was up for 2 hours researching my State Propositions. It's a very user friendly and inviting space (without ads ‼️).
I’d be super interested in you interviewing someone who works with polling! So appreciative of the work you do in general, too 😊
YES so much to this! I’m a researcher, so I’d love to know how polling researchers conduct their own research!
Great info, thank you Sharon!
1) I’d love to hear you interview someone from a reputable polling company. Do that in your spare time. 🤣🙃😉🥰
2) Also, I’m concerned about possible intimidation or violence occurring this year at the polls. Is there any data out there on how election volunteers will be protected or are they being trained for “what if” circumstances?
Thank you and your team for all of the work you do to educate all of us! 👏🏻
Thank you SO much for this on National Voter Registration day!
I have always voted in person. But it has occurred to me a lot of things could keep me from the poll on Election Day. As a member of the League of Women Voters, I always urge people to make a voting plan. So this year, I plan to vote “First Available.” We have Choices! If you decide that’s the right Choice for you, too, check your local election board’s website, and find out when no-excuse in-person voting is available. Whatever you choose, thank you for voting!
Helpful post! I do think it would be interesting to hear an interview with a professional in polling.
A good place to check a poll’s legitimacy is the fivethirtyeight website where they rank the polls based on past accuracy and transparency of methodology. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
When I was teaching--during an election year--I started my government class each day with FiveThirtyEight. We checked for daily swings, and overall trends--then discussed the "whys" of it all. According to students, this was their favorite activity. Almost wished we had a general election every year. (jk)
Todd, bite your tongue! Oh, just saw the jk. Whew!
I regularly am asked to participate in IPSOS polls. I'm registered with the company and they have my profile. I am asked qualifying questions and am declined when they already have enough participants that are, for example, female over 55. The polls are not always political and are sometimes sponsored but it's always disclosed up front. Legit polling companies never ask for money or personal info like SS# or bank#'s. Occasionally they will ask if they can follow up by phone but that's entirely optional.
Since I started following the polls in 2012, it seems like they've been off every election. They projected the Romney/Obama race to be much closer than it was, predicted Hillary would win, and in 2020, gave Trump more of an advantage in swing states. Your comment about Clinton voters staying home makes sense, but I just want to know how much stock to put in any of these polls. Are there any you trust that you check regularly?
I think interviewing someone who does political polling professionally would be fascinating.
edited to add that i'm trying not to pay too much attention to the polls because what matters is who ends up voting on the day/absentee, not what people say they're going to do. it's hard to avoid hearing about it, though.
orig comment:
slight tangent but related: i'm a member of pew's american trends panel and the email just before the one linking to this post was for the latest survey :)
they sent me something in the mail about three years ago, and i investigated it thoroughly before signing up. once or twice a month, i get an email with a link to a survey. i think that the ATP is separate from state-by-state political polling, but it's also possible they pull out results from people who they know live in certain states and use that. i'm truly not sure how that part works.
in addition to frequent political questions, they ask about the full gamut of societal issues — AI, self-driving cars, religion, immigration, spirituality, parenthood/whether or not you want to be a parent, relationships, etc.
every time i see a pew survey mentioned in a major news article, i click on the link to look at when/how the survey was conducted and i'm often part of the surveyed group (they don't give every survey to everyone). it's an awesome feeling to see my actual opinion reflected in the news, whether i'm on the minority or majority side of an issue.
here's a link if you want to learn more about it: https://www.pewresearch.org/the-american-trends-panel/
Sharon, I am acquaintances with someone that works for public policy polling. I can try to connect you with him if you’d like.
Thank you for the info! I grew up in AZ and recently moved to GA but I generally get pills for AZ. Should I just ignore them?
Pollsters aren't always unbiased either! I remember getting a call from one and she was asking if I was going to support a local proposition and as the pollster read it, she kept saying, "Wow, that's a great one! It actually does something!" As if I was going to respond that I wasn't voting for it after that 🤣😜
This is really great info- also important to remember that pollsters are different from campaign volunteers who may call asking you for your support and/or if you have a voting plan.
Have you interviewed Nate Silver? Would love to hear you engage with him on your podcast or here!
I think that most people are sick of polls and being survey on everything. "How would you rate your experience" about everything is wearing really thin with me. So I ignore all of it.
That said I think that the only people who answer political polls are highly motivated by their political beliefs in other words fired up by whatever "news" they consume.
Last election was very close in some states but not overall. One third of eligible voters didn't vote.
I think pollsters generally do the best they can and few may be biased but I'm not sure pollsters are getting a real representative sample by polling people who agree to be polled. That is why they have been less successful lately.
I am hesitant to participate in any poll for fear that my information will then be used to remove my voter registration. Prob not a real fear but I don’t want to help anyone who is inclined to do such things…