It's cool how the people who taught me basic truths like "protectionism is usually bad for the economy" and "a person who cheats on their spouse can't be trusted to keep any other promise" and "I disagree with what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it" got sucked into a cult of personality around the world's most corrupt dumba$$ and voted for this.
Unfortunately the few who subscribed and commented on here no longer do….I don’t think his hard core voters will change their minds. They don’t see the horror we see. We need to grab the middle, and there’s still no unifying voice leading that path forward. Pete B, AOC, Bernie, Chris Murphy, Jasmine, Melanie Stansbury, Jon Ossoff and others are trying. I applaud their efforts. Right now we need to get louder about the kidnapping and disappearing of people. This seems the most urgent to me! Jessica Yellin is posting a lot of shareable videos.
Agreed on all counts, although TBH I'm not concerned about the lack of a single voice... I think that's the same classic American desire for a hero that keeps us from collective action.
That said, people like Gov Pritzker are doing a great job!
I always wonder if they'll ever own their mistakes and change for the better or just continue to bury their heads further into the sand. It's quite depressing.
Knowing that in cults, the more "mistakes" a "guru" makes or the more outlandish he acts, the more the followers dig in and justify all of it no matter the personal or global costs, it seems that most of them will not, even a little bit. A few do, just as in any cult, but only a handful. Exactly like during Covid, people in the hospital dying from Covid refused to accept it was Covid. People in cults will lose everything, including their lives, and still be convinced it's the right or only way. Once I realized this, I understood that there is no reason for any of us to waste our time waiting for it. Just try to create something better and more meaningful and work really hard for it. But I am so, so angry it hurts.
It's hard for me to see some of them doing that because it's the "I don't care about anyone else but me" mentality, but as they stick with it it feels like a cult mentality because they accept it even when it's bad for them too.
I highly doubt it. Any Trump supporter I know would never ever openly admit they made a mistake voting for him. Who wants to admit they were wrong. It’s the same reason the few open Trump supporters that use to comment here left, it got too hard to defend his actions.
Just before Christmas, I was waiting in the checkout line at a sporting goods store when I overheard two customers talking about how they wished they could cancel Christmas until after Inauguration Day b/c prices would be coming down. I think the vast majority of Trump’s voters didn’t (and maybe still don’t?) realize that they were voting for the price of housing, cars, and consumable goods to jump b/c of tariffs & uncertainty.
Many Trump voters do not read or listen to various news sources. if they listen to “news” it is far right talk radio, Fox News or what they hear in church. They are fed all MAGA/ Right Wing drivel and believe it to be gospel
Now these exact same people are angry we're not thrilled prices are going up, up and up and that we don't see his genius.
They don't even remember what they said before. They don't care and will deny they ever said it (just like him). He is their leader and they will follow right off the cliff while parroting the right-wing talking points funneled into their ears.
They didn't realize what they were voting for because they refused to look. Just like they refuse to look now.
The present administration wants to control the world’s economy through tariffs. Unfortunately, the market is controlled by factors they can not control. It’s basic macro economics.
Now that the US and China have announced tariffs will be reduced for 90 days, I'm curious to see what will happen with these prices Proctor and Gamble (and others) have announced. Will they play yo-yo and push them back down, or keep them up since the reprieve is only 90 days and they've already established that prices are going up? Similar to how companies didn't lower prices immediately during the pandemic when products and supplies were no longer in shortage.
Yes, call it out! But at the same time, I always kinda cringe when we call it "greed" -- it's how the system is designed to work. When we call it greed, we're pretending that the problem is just a few unscrupulous people in charge. If we want it to end, we need different rules.
Yes there are other options, but for corporations to be incentivized to not be greedy, it requires a very tuned in customer base that doesn’t mind paying higher prices for values that they trust are being adhered to. But in general, corporations would not be competitive if they leave money on the table that isn’t illegal to grab.
I just want a world that doesn’t require regular, overworked, underpaid people to be constantly vigilant to know that they aren’t complicit in a scheme to make billionaires richer than they deserve to be. I want there to be default incentives for corporations to do the right thing.
Like how some languages have multiple words for snow to capture its many nuances and forms, we are about to have a new vocabulary for inflation to describe the many ways it’s about to creep into out lives.
Also an excellent question. They may say the uncertainty means prices still need to go up. Maybe not by as much expecting people to be happier with a 'smaller' jump up in price.
The other side of it is small businesses almost HAVING to raise prices. I saw an interview last week with a woman who sells some kind of baby product. She said she has shipments waiting in China that she can't afford to bring over, and only about 2 months of supplies in US warehouses. She stands to lose her home, everything. If she can get that shipment in under the lowered tariffs, I don't see any option for her other than to raise prices in anticipation of tariffs going back up in 90 days. I think small businesses are the ones being hurt the most by this. Amazon, Shein, Temu, Adidas, etc, they can all weather the storm. They may have a slump, but they will survive. No investors or CEO'S will lose their homes or livelihood. And what emerges will be a landscape with even less competition from small or local businesses.
While I'm truly relieved that the latest news suggests we might avoid some economic pain thanks to these "productive" talks, I can't help but feel horrified that Trump might escape accountability for this reckless, stupid gambit with our livelihoods. We'll likely see propaganda claiming he knew all along this would happen, painting him as a strategic genius rather than what he really is: a broken clock that's right two seconds out of a day, on a good day. Where's the accountability for the other 99% of the time when his judgment is completely off? As always, Trump and people like him aren’t held accountable to anything. He’ll be fine no matter what happens to us.
The very nature of this article having to put an update at the top is kind of a reflection of the harm that's already been done to small businesses across the country, albeit way less severe. All this excellent work Sharon put into explaining a complex economic situation, only for a chaotic whiplash announcement that makes her analysis seem out of date the moment readers encounter it. This mirrors exactly what's happened to countless businesses: many have lost substantial revenue, some have shuttered completely, devastated not just by actual policy changes but by the mere anticipation and uncertainty about their future. And let’s be clear: today’s news did not wipe away that harmful uncertainty.
As we catch up on today's developments, we need to recognize that nothing Trump claimed as the purpose of these tariffs has actually been accomplished, nor is there evidence we're on track to achieve those goals.
The United States simply isn't equipped to bring manufacturing jobs back, and even if we did, there are a lot of robots and computers more willing to take those jobs than American citizens.
Or if you believe that these tariffs are all about correcting trade imbalances (a goal directly at odds with the goal of bringing back American manufacturing), we won't suddenly start exporting to China at the same level we import.
And as the New York Times points out: "While a temporary reprieve from the shockingly high tariffs is cause for celebration for businesses in both countries, the repercussions will linger. Businesses will likely encounter a flood of pent-up demand, leading to soaring transport prices, as companies race to schedule shipments during the 90-day negotiating window to take advantage of the lower tariff rates."
I hope you'll forgive a small plug for my partner's work: he created a website called butmyeggs.com after the election, which tracks prices of essential goods and explains how each major policy affects the economy. The price tracking is automated and always current, though the policy analysis has become a full-time job in itself. So you might notice slightly less coverage of the past couple weeks since he started a new job. Nevertheless, it's an excellent resource if Sharon's piece sparked your interest in learning more. It's written specifically so you don't need an economics background to understand what's happening.
"Promises made, promises kept!" – when Trump and his team repeat this slogan, remember how selective they're being. The main promises that attracted swing voters – like his claims that grocery prices would fall and manufacturing would return to America – he has neither kept nor can keep. The only promises he fulfills are the needlessly cruel and reckless ones, because destruction is infinitely easier to accomplish than reinvention.
I also wanted to explain deeper how even the ostensible reason for these tariffs don't make sense and contradict each other. His administration claims tariffs will both correct the trade imbalance AND bring manufacturing back to America, but these goals fundamentally conflict with each other.
If tariffs somehow succeeded in bringing manufacturing back to the US, those goods would inevitably be more expensive than their Chinese counterparts due to higher American wages, regulatory compliance costs, and the infrastructure investments necessary to create the manufacturing facilities. This means American consumers would pay more for these products, and these higher-cost American goods would be completely uncompetitive in global markets, especially China. The result: Our trade imbalance with China would likely worsen, not improve, as we'd still import many things while exporting even less.
Conversely, if the goal was truly to balance trade with China, the most effective approach would be to boost exports in sectors where America already excels, like technology, agriculture, entertainment, and services. But this approach does nothing to revive traditional manufacturing jobs. In fact, it would likely accelerate the transition toward a more service and technology-oriented economy, precisely the opposite of bringing back manufacturing jobs.
What's maddening is that even as businesses and communities suffer from these tariffs and their retaliatory counterparts, neither goal is being accomplished. We're just getting economic pain without any of the promised gains. Manufacturing isn't returning at scale, and the trade imbalance situation isn't fundamentally improving. China has simply found other markets for their goods while American consumers, farmers, and businesses shoulder the costs.
The whole approach reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of modern global economics. Countries specialize in what they do best, and trying to forcibly reshape these patterns through blunt instruments like massive tariffs creates enormous collateral damage without delivering the promised benefits. It's like trying to drive forward and backward simultaneously... you'll go nowhere and waste a lot of fuel. But hey, at least people are kind of right when they say "At least he's doing something!" If only that "something" was worth anything.
"I also wanted to explain deeper how even the ostensible reason for these tariffs don't make sense and contradict each other. ******His administration claims tariffs will both correct the trade imbalance AND bring manufacturing back to America, but these goals fundamentally conflict with each other.******"
"As we catch up on today's developments, we need to recognize that nothing Trump claimed as the purpose of these tariffs has actually been accomplished, nor is there evidence we're on track to achieve those goals."
This. I wanted to scream this yesterday but was having trouble articulating it. WHAT exactly are the goals? They change 5 times in one of his rambling, nonsensical sentences alone. What is he actually accomplishing, besides destroying lives and destabilizing our country on a massive scale? Putting small AMERICAN companies out of business? Ensuring that we can't afford to buy anything?
When I see somebody talking about having faith in his "negotiations", I keep wanting to ask, WHAT IN THE HELL IS HE NEGOTIATING FOR?! Himself. That's it. He's mentally a 3 year old playing dictator and play acting what it's like to wield power. Except the consequences are real and terrible for everyone but him.
Your partner's site is awesome! What a great idea. Keep plugging it, just in case people don't see it. I like that idea.
I was also going to say, that I had run into somebody who was tracking politicians and how they vote, etc. When I find it again, I will link you to it. My guess is that it isn't exactly what you were doing, but if you could gain inspiration from it or have it help you with data or whatever, I thought that might be nice.
I don’t buy a lot of things outside of the grocery store at the moment but will around the holidays. Sadly all those people who voted for lower groceries, have cost me more money on things I refuse to not purchase and so much I had to just give up due to the prices rising. My coffee went up $2 per can since Trump took over, the one item I will not do without. I keep track week to week of price changes and things continue to inch upward in price. 1349 days until he leaves office…assuming he actually leaves.
This is utter chaos. Us peons are weighing when to buy goods like we are making bets on what will rise in price the most. I wonder what Christmas will look like.
I’m also not someone who loves to shop and I abhor mindless consumption of cheap things. I think it is a huge negative all around. So, I am saying this as someone who has never bought from SHEIN or Temu, has stopped buying things from Amazon as much as possible and really only tries to buy things I need. I would love it if we all purchased less unneeded stuff. This situation with the tariffs is something completely different, though. Ugh.
This is the NYT article this morning covering the 90 day pause with temporarily lowere rates. There is an option to listen to the article. This article is gifted, and there is no paywall for 30 days. These are exhausting days, friends, but I’m happy to be sharing them with you guys.
Headline:
U.S. and China Agree to Temporarily Slash Tariffs in Bid to Defuse Trade War
The 145 percent U.S. tariff on Chinese goods will come down to 30 percent for 90 days, while the two sides continue talks aimed at resolving their differences.
Reading the news this am it sounds like a 90 day pause? And the tariffs would be reduced to 30% (on the US side). It will be nice to have something more concrete. The pauses seem to still create long term uncertainty. Listening to podcasts featuring small business owners in the US there also hasn’t been a push from them to source materials other places than China. With good reason on their end. They can’t replicate the prices they get from China. Is there still a push for American factories (using imported parts because we don’t have many of the raw materials) to be built? I haven’t heard as much of that.
Amber, The push to build American factories would be a long-term investment/solution as it takes years to complete the building and production phases. This pain is immediate and multilayered.
That may explain why you’re not hearing about building American factories. It’s not the same conversation.
And which businesses are going to commit to long-term capital investments when they might just need to wait a few months for the tariffs to be rolled back? The uncertainty does not make for confident planning.
Yes I understand that. It's just at first I heard much more about that being the reason we're doing this. But now it seems to be more focused on being 'fair' to the US. But perhaps the idea that we're going to bring but so much manufacturing to the US has been recalibrated by the response of small businesses? Not that I think we can't bring back some manufacturing. But, it seems like it would need to be targeted and in specific industries for it to make sense economically. This is just what I'm understanding from the news sources and podcasts I've been listening to.
Amber, you are completely correct about everything.
Yes, the initial claim was Build in America. We saw and heard how that got Unions on board.
Yes, it would need to be targeted and specific to make economic sense.
Unfortunately, it was never meant to make economic sense.
High, unpredictable tariffs do not build an economy that makes sense.
Also unfortunate, predictable tyrants do not build an economy that makes sense for most of us (not even their base), only for themselves and their insiders.
The frustrating part for me is that targeted tariffs, targeted policies in general would have made things for better for everyone. Even those 'insiders', which the large scale tariffs didn't even benefit them. We saw that with the scare in the bond market. The unpredictable nature of this current policy just doesn't seem sustainable.
Does anyone else feel like the Trump administration just keeps playing the "chicken game" with other countries and loses every time? Or are we the people the ones losing every time? I can't keep track.
Exactly. He creates the problem, makes it worse than anyone can possibly imagine, "negotiates" (eye roll headache), fails spectacularly at it, things go 8% back to where it was before, we all suffer in perpetuity, and he screams victory (because he was able to skim money from this chaos for himself). Then his supporters buy it every single time and tell us it was the plan all along and "it worked." I just CAN NOT anymore.
This reminds me of a conversation I had with my Trump-supporting brother in law this past weekend. He’s in sales for important parts related to commercial vehicles and aircraft. Apparently sales have been down the last few months. I asked if he has concerns over the tariffs. He said quite confidently, with a huge grin, that tariffs will help.
I am not happy about food being more expensive and other basic necessities but part of me also thinks America needs to stop being such a consumer society. Like, do our kids really need more toys for Christmas? Obviously I’m speaking from a place of privilege, I imagine most of us subscribed here are privileged… but maybe we don’t all need a new phone every other year… if Apple prices are way up people will make do with what they have. Maybe we buy our clothes and gifts from thrift stores this year to help with waste. That does not seem so bad to me…
Is there a part to this that is good? How will this more negatively impact poor/marginalized groups?
I agree I think for those in a place of privilege rethinking how and when we purchase things is a good thing. However I do think for people who are below the poverty line things won't be as easy. They already shop at thrift stores, they already don't consume the way someone else might. Telling them to just buy fewer more expensive things isn't going to work because they're already shopping somewhere like Dollar General. Changing the way US society views consuming goods is not going to be an easy task. In general those with the means are used to getting what they want when they want it. You also have to wonder what impact that is going to have on the economy. If we stop buying that means we're also not buying from small businesses. What impact will that have? I already hear small businesses complaining about losses (not blaming them! they need us to buy from them). But the people I'm talking to haven't shifted to big box stores. They've shifted to just not buying at all. Maybe that's just the people I've been talking to in the lower middle class?
It might be different too if the tariffs were happening around the ideas of consumerism and waste but they aren’t… so it is just going to negatively impact everyone I suppose… but again, some worse than others. Hopefully I can be help to those around me who need it, push back against this administration, and work on my own consumerism at the same time.
The cuts the republicans want to make to our economy I.e. to Medicaid, snap and others combined with tariff hikes will truly turn us into a failing society. Those still invested in our democracy have to keep fighting. It took hundreds of years to stop slavery and somehow those folks kept fighting. I pray everyday for some of that courage.
*SIIIIIIIGH*
It's cool how the people who taught me basic truths like "protectionism is usually bad for the economy" and "a person who cheats on their spouse can't be trusted to keep any other promise" and "I disagree with what you say, but will defend to the death your right to say it" got sucked into a cult of personality around the world's most corrupt dumba$$ and voted for this.
Thanks, Trump voters.
Unfortunately the few who subscribed and commented on here no longer do….I don’t think his hard core voters will change their minds. They don’t see the horror we see. We need to grab the middle, and there’s still no unifying voice leading that path forward. Pete B, AOC, Bernie, Chris Murphy, Jasmine, Melanie Stansbury, Jon Ossoff and others are trying. I applaud their efforts. Right now we need to get louder about the kidnapping and disappearing of people. This seems the most urgent to me! Jessica Yellin is posting a lot of shareable videos.
Agreed on all counts, although TBH I'm not concerned about the lack of a single voice... I think that's the same classic American desire for a hero that keeps us from collective action.
That said, people like Gov Pritzker are doing a great job!
Good point on collective action and Pritzker!
I always wonder if they'll ever own their mistakes and change for the better or just continue to bury their heads further into the sand. It's quite depressing.
I doubt it, sadly. I think it's the sunk cost fallacy at work... They're in too deep for too long to admit they were fooled.
Knowing that in cults, the more "mistakes" a "guru" makes or the more outlandish he acts, the more the followers dig in and justify all of it no matter the personal or global costs, it seems that most of them will not, even a little bit. A few do, just as in any cult, but only a handful. Exactly like during Covid, people in the hospital dying from Covid refused to accept it was Covid. People in cults will lose everything, including their lives, and still be convinced it's the right or only way. Once I realized this, I understood that there is no reason for any of us to waste our time waiting for it. Just try to create something better and more meaningful and work really hard for it. But I am so, so angry it hurts.
It's hard for me to see some of them doing that because it's the "I don't care about anyone else but me" mentality, but as they stick with it it feels like a cult mentality because they accept it even when it's bad for them too.
I highly doubt it. Any Trump supporter I know would never ever openly admit they made a mistake voting for him. Who wants to admit they were wrong. It’s the same reason the few open Trump supporters that use to comment here left, it got too hard to defend his actions.
Is everyone tired of winning yet? I’m just tired.
Tired and angry. I'm so scared about the future.
Just before Christmas, I was waiting in the checkout line at a sporting goods store when I overheard two customers talking about how they wished they could cancel Christmas until after Inauguration Day b/c prices would be coming down. I think the vast majority of Trump’s voters didn’t (and maybe still don’t?) realize that they were voting for the price of housing, cars, and consumable goods to jump b/c of tariffs & uncertainty.
Laura, I believe a lot of Trump voters didn’t realize a lot of what they were voting for.
Which is really unfortunate, considering his proven record of lying about Everything!
Many Trump voters do not read or listen to various news sources. if they listen to “news” it is far right talk radio, Fox News or what they hear in church. They are fed all MAGA/ Right Wing drivel and believe it to be gospel
Yes. I heard variations of this constantly.
Now these exact same people are angry we're not thrilled prices are going up, up and up and that we don't see his genius.
They don't even remember what they said before. They don't care and will deny they ever said it (just like him). He is their leader and they will follow right off the cliff while parroting the right-wing talking points funneled into their ears.
They didn't realize what they were voting for because they refused to look. Just like they refuse to look now.
The present administration wants to control the world’s economy through tariffs. Unfortunately, the market is controlled by factors they can not control. It’s basic macro economics.
Now that the US and China have announced tariffs will be reduced for 90 days, I'm curious to see what will happen with these prices Proctor and Gamble (and others) have announced. Will they play yo-yo and push them back down, or keep them up since the reprieve is only 90 days and they've already established that prices are going up? Similar to how companies didn't lower prices immediately during the pandemic when products and supplies were no longer in shortage.
Allison and Amber, “American companies can raise their prices by a lower amount and still be the cheaper option.”
Let’s call it what it is: Greedflation!
Yes, call it out! But at the same time, I always kinda cringe when we call it "greed" -- it's how the system is designed to work. When we call it greed, we're pretending that the problem is just a few unscrupulous people in charge. If we want it to end, we need different rules.
Is the system designed to run on greed?
It certainly can be run that way.
Shareholders can demand it.
But there are other options. When you see blatant price gouging, Call It Out!
Yes there are other options, but for corporations to be incentivized to not be greedy, it requires a very tuned in customer base that doesn’t mind paying higher prices for values that they trust are being adhered to. But in general, corporations would not be competitive if they leave money on the table that isn’t illegal to grab.
I just want a world that doesn’t require regular, overworked, underpaid people to be constantly vigilant to know that they aren’t complicit in a scheme to make billionaires richer than they deserve to be. I want there to be default incentives for corporations to do the right thing.
Thank you, Timothy, for reminding me about the part privilege plays in this.
I think there’s still room for companies to build a brand on providing fairly-priced products that consumers recognize and value.
Trust-busting would go a long way in supporting those opportunities.
Like how some languages have multiple words for snow to capture its many nuances and forms, we are about to have a new vocabulary for inflation to describe the many ways it’s about to creep into out lives.
Exactly. “Pauses” on tariffs aren’t helpful as they still mean more uncertainty is coming.
Also an excellent question. They may say the uncertainty means prices still need to go up. Maybe not by as much expecting people to be happier with a 'smaller' jump up in price.
The other side of it is small businesses almost HAVING to raise prices. I saw an interview last week with a woman who sells some kind of baby product. She said she has shipments waiting in China that she can't afford to bring over, and only about 2 months of supplies in US warehouses. She stands to lose her home, everything. If she can get that shipment in under the lowered tariffs, I don't see any option for her other than to raise prices in anticipation of tariffs going back up in 90 days. I think small businesses are the ones being hurt the most by this. Amazon, Shein, Temu, Adidas, etc, they can all weather the storm. They may have a slump, but they will survive. No investors or CEO'S will lose their homes or livelihood. And what emerges will be a landscape with even less competition from small or local businesses.
While I'm truly relieved that the latest news suggests we might avoid some economic pain thanks to these "productive" talks, I can't help but feel horrified that Trump might escape accountability for this reckless, stupid gambit with our livelihoods. We'll likely see propaganda claiming he knew all along this would happen, painting him as a strategic genius rather than what he really is: a broken clock that's right two seconds out of a day, on a good day. Where's the accountability for the other 99% of the time when his judgment is completely off? As always, Trump and people like him aren’t held accountable to anything. He’ll be fine no matter what happens to us.
The very nature of this article having to put an update at the top is kind of a reflection of the harm that's already been done to small businesses across the country, albeit way less severe. All this excellent work Sharon put into explaining a complex economic situation, only for a chaotic whiplash announcement that makes her analysis seem out of date the moment readers encounter it. This mirrors exactly what's happened to countless businesses: many have lost substantial revenue, some have shuttered completely, devastated not just by actual policy changes but by the mere anticipation and uncertainty about their future. And let’s be clear: today’s news did not wipe away that harmful uncertainty.
As we catch up on today's developments, we need to recognize that nothing Trump claimed as the purpose of these tariffs has actually been accomplished, nor is there evidence we're on track to achieve those goals.
The United States simply isn't equipped to bring manufacturing jobs back, and even if we did, there are a lot of robots and computers more willing to take those jobs than American citizens.
Or if you believe that these tariffs are all about correcting trade imbalances (a goal directly at odds with the goal of bringing back American manufacturing), we won't suddenly start exporting to China at the same level we import.
And as the New York Times points out: "While a temporary reprieve from the shockingly high tariffs is cause for celebration for businesses in both countries, the repercussions will linger. Businesses will likely encounter a flood of pent-up demand, leading to soaring transport prices, as companies race to schedule shipments during the 90-day negotiating window to take advantage of the lower tariff rates."
I hope you'll forgive a small plug for my partner's work: he created a website called butmyeggs.com after the election, which tracks prices of essential goods and explains how each major policy affects the economy. The price tracking is automated and always current, though the policy analysis has become a full-time job in itself. So you might notice slightly less coverage of the past couple weeks since he started a new job. Nevertheless, it's an excellent resource if Sharon's piece sparked your interest in learning more. It's written specifically so you don't need an economics background to understand what's happening.
"Promises made, promises kept!" – when Trump and his team repeat this slogan, remember how selective they're being. The main promises that attracted swing voters – like his claims that grocery prices would fall and manufacturing would return to America – he has neither kept nor can keep. The only promises he fulfills are the needlessly cruel and reckless ones, because destruction is infinitely easier to accomplish than reinvention.
I also wanted to explain deeper how even the ostensible reason for these tariffs don't make sense and contradict each other. His administration claims tariffs will both correct the trade imbalance AND bring manufacturing back to America, but these goals fundamentally conflict with each other.
If tariffs somehow succeeded in bringing manufacturing back to the US, those goods would inevitably be more expensive than their Chinese counterparts due to higher American wages, regulatory compliance costs, and the infrastructure investments necessary to create the manufacturing facilities. This means American consumers would pay more for these products, and these higher-cost American goods would be completely uncompetitive in global markets, especially China. The result: Our trade imbalance with China would likely worsen, not improve, as we'd still import many things while exporting even less.
Conversely, if the goal was truly to balance trade with China, the most effective approach would be to boost exports in sectors where America already excels, like technology, agriculture, entertainment, and services. But this approach does nothing to revive traditional manufacturing jobs. In fact, it would likely accelerate the transition toward a more service and technology-oriented economy, precisely the opposite of bringing back manufacturing jobs.
What's maddening is that even as businesses and communities suffer from these tariffs and their retaliatory counterparts, neither goal is being accomplished. We're just getting economic pain without any of the promised gains. Manufacturing isn't returning at scale, and the trade imbalance situation isn't fundamentally improving. China has simply found other markets for their goods while American consumers, farmers, and businesses shoulder the costs.
The whole approach reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of modern global economics. Countries specialize in what they do best, and trying to forcibly reshape these patterns through blunt instruments like massive tariffs creates enormous collateral damage without delivering the promised benefits. It's like trying to drive forward and backward simultaneously... you'll go nowhere and waste a lot of fuel. But hey, at least people are kind of right when they say "At least he's doing something!" If only that "something" was worth anything.
"I also wanted to explain deeper how even the ostensible reason for these tariffs don't make sense and contradict each other. ******His administration claims tariffs will both correct the trade imbalance AND bring manufacturing back to America, but these goals fundamentally conflict with each other.******"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ That^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Can we please make your comments required reading? PLEASE PLEASE?
"As we catch up on today's developments, we need to recognize that nothing Trump claimed as the purpose of these tariffs has actually been accomplished, nor is there evidence we're on track to achieve those goals."
This. I wanted to scream this yesterday but was having trouble articulating it. WHAT exactly are the goals? They change 5 times in one of his rambling, nonsensical sentences alone. What is he actually accomplishing, besides destroying lives and destabilizing our country on a massive scale? Putting small AMERICAN companies out of business? Ensuring that we can't afford to buy anything?
When I see somebody talking about having faith in his "negotiations", I keep wanting to ask, WHAT IN THE HELL IS HE NEGOTIATING FOR?! Himself. That's it. He's mentally a 3 year old playing dictator and play acting what it's like to wield power. Except the consequences are real and terrible for everyone but him.
Your partner's site is awesome! What a great idea. Keep plugging it, just in case people don't see it. I like that idea.
I was also going to say, that I had run into somebody who was tracking politicians and how they vote, etc. When I find it again, I will link you to it. My guess is that it isn't exactly what you were doing, but if you could gain inspiration from it or have it help you with data or whatever, I thought that might be nice.
Has he made America great again yet?🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
I don’t buy a lot of things outside of the grocery store at the moment but will around the holidays. Sadly all those people who voted for lower groceries, have cost me more money on things I refuse to not purchase and so much I had to just give up due to the prices rising. My coffee went up $2 per can since Trump took over, the one item I will not do without. I keep track week to week of price changes and things continue to inch upward in price. 1349 days until he leaves office…assuming he actually leaves.
This is utter chaos. Us peons are weighing when to buy goods like we are making bets on what will rise in price the most. I wonder what Christmas will look like.
I’m also not someone who loves to shop and I abhor mindless consumption of cheap things. I think it is a huge negative all around. So, I am saying this as someone who has never bought from SHEIN or Temu, has stopped buying things from Amazon as much as possible and really only tries to buy things I need. I would love it if we all purchased less unneeded stuff. This situation with the tariffs is something completely different, though. Ugh.
It's a tough time in America when half of the voters trusted a six time bankrupted businessman over sixteen nobel prize winning economists.
This is the NYT article this morning covering the 90 day pause with temporarily lowere rates. There is an option to listen to the article. This article is gifted, and there is no paywall for 30 days. These are exhausting days, friends, but I’m happy to be sharing them with you guys.
Headline:
U.S. and China Agree to Temporarily Slash Tariffs in Bid to Defuse Trade War
The 145 percent U.S. tariff on Chinese goods will come down to 30 percent for 90 days, while the two sides continue talks aimed at resolving their differences.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/business/china-us-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Gk8.6fr9.R2iy0aKSlmDa&smid=url-share
Reading the news this am it sounds like a 90 day pause? And the tariffs would be reduced to 30% (on the US side). It will be nice to have something more concrete. The pauses seem to still create long term uncertainty. Listening to podcasts featuring small business owners in the US there also hasn’t been a push from them to source materials other places than China. With good reason on their end. They can’t replicate the prices they get from China. Is there still a push for American factories (using imported parts because we don’t have many of the raw materials) to be built? I haven’t heard as much of that.
Amber, The push to build American factories would be a long-term investment/solution as it takes years to complete the building and production phases. This pain is immediate and multilayered.
That may explain why you’re not hearing about building American factories. It’s not the same conversation.
And which businesses are going to commit to long-term capital investments when they might just need to wait a few months for the tariffs to be rolled back? The uncertainty does not make for confident planning.
Yes I understand that. It's just at first I heard much more about that being the reason we're doing this. But now it seems to be more focused on being 'fair' to the US. But perhaps the idea that we're going to bring but so much manufacturing to the US has been recalibrated by the response of small businesses? Not that I think we can't bring back some manufacturing. But, it seems like it would need to be targeted and in specific industries for it to make sense economically. This is just what I'm understanding from the news sources and podcasts I've been listening to.
Amber, you are completely correct about everything.
Yes, the initial claim was Build in America. We saw and heard how that got Unions on board.
Yes, it would need to be targeted and specific to make economic sense.
Unfortunately, it was never meant to make economic sense.
High, unpredictable tariffs do not build an economy that makes sense.
Also unfortunate, predictable tyrants do not build an economy that makes sense for most of us (not even their base), only for themselves and their insiders.
The frustrating part for me is that targeted tariffs, targeted policies in general would have made things for better for everyone. Even those 'insiders', which the large scale tariffs didn't even benefit them. We saw that with the scare in the bond market. The unpredictable nature of this current policy just doesn't seem sustainable.
Does anyone else feel like the Trump administration just keeps playing the "chicken game" with other countries and loses every time? Or are we the people the ones losing every time? I can't keep track.
Exactly. He creates the problem, makes it worse than anyone can possibly imagine, "negotiates" (eye roll headache), fails spectacularly at it, things go 8% back to where it was before, we all suffer in perpetuity, and he screams victory (because he was able to skim money from this chaos for himself). Then his supporters buy it every single time and tell us it was the plan all along and "it worked." I just CAN NOT anymore.
This reminds me of a conversation I had with my Trump-supporting brother in law this past weekend. He’s in sales for important parts related to commercial vehicles and aircraft. Apparently sales have been down the last few months. I asked if he has concerns over the tariffs. He said quite confidently, with a huge grin, that tariffs will help.
*facepalm* I can't.
This comment made me very sad :\
I am not happy about food being more expensive and other basic necessities but part of me also thinks America needs to stop being such a consumer society. Like, do our kids really need more toys for Christmas? Obviously I’m speaking from a place of privilege, I imagine most of us subscribed here are privileged… but maybe we don’t all need a new phone every other year… if Apple prices are way up people will make do with what they have. Maybe we buy our clothes and gifts from thrift stores this year to help with waste. That does not seem so bad to me…
Is there a part to this that is good? How will this more negatively impact poor/marginalized groups?
I agree I think for those in a place of privilege rethinking how and when we purchase things is a good thing. However I do think for people who are below the poverty line things won't be as easy. They already shop at thrift stores, they already don't consume the way someone else might. Telling them to just buy fewer more expensive things isn't going to work because they're already shopping somewhere like Dollar General. Changing the way US society views consuming goods is not going to be an easy task. In general those with the means are used to getting what they want when they want it. You also have to wonder what impact that is going to have on the economy. If we stop buying that means we're also not buying from small businesses. What impact will that have? I already hear small businesses complaining about losses (not blaming them! they need us to buy from them). But the people I'm talking to haven't shifted to big box stores. They've shifted to just not buying at all. Maybe that's just the people I've been talking to in the lower middle class?
Those are such good points! Thank you!
It might be different too if the tariffs were happening around the ideas of consumerism and waste but they aren’t… so it is just going to negatively impact everyone I suppose… but again, some worse than others. Hopefully I can be help to those around me who need it, push back against this administration, and work on my own consumerism at the same time.
The cuts the republicans want to make to our economy I.e. to Medicaid, snap and others combined with tariff hikes will truly turn us into a failing society. Those still invested in our democracy have to keep fighting. It took hundreds of years to stop slavery and somehow those folks kept fighting. I pray everyday for some of that courage.