Trump's Agenda Could Fall Apart

And it starts here.

It’s May 2025, six months since the 2024 election came to an end. Did you think you’d have some downtime before you’d start hearing about new elections? Think again!

The 2026 midterms are already underway, and with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs, the two parties are busily preparing to put their best candidates forward.

In the House, results are likely to follow a long-running historical pattern. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections. Democrats need to win only three seats next year to retake the chamber, putting the Speaker’s gavel well within their reach.

But the Senate is another story.

Only a third of Senate seats — as opposed to all 435 House seats — are up for reelection every cycle, which means the Senate outcome is highly dependent on which seats are being contested. The president’s party in both of the last two midterm years — Republicans in 2018 and Democrats in 2022 — managed to pick up Senate seats even as they lost ground in the House.

Heading into the 2026 elections, Republicans control 53 Senate seats and Democrats control 47. Democrats would need to flip four seats to win the chamber, a tall order. (A Senate tied 50–50 would remain in Republican control, since Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking votes.)

If Republicans lose the House next year, it would be disappointing for the party. But if they also lose the Senate, it would be devastating. A Democratic-led Senate would likely prevent President Trump from confirming almost any judges — including nominees for any Supreme Court vacancies that open up — for the last two years of his term. Without the ability to pass many laws, or stock the courts with like-minded judges, Trump would have few levers to leave a long-lasting impact with his second term, since any executive orders can be undone by a future president.

The GOP starts out with an advantage in the race to a Senate majority — but it will be hotly contested by both parties because of these high stakes. And if past years are any guide, some of the most crucial decisions for determining Senate control are being made right now: over which candidates will run.

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On this score, Republicans suffered a major setback last week in Georgia. There, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — the 38-year-old whose initial win helped flip the Senate chamber in 2020 — is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection.

Republicans know they will need the right recruit to knock off Ossoff, and they thought they had their man in Gov. Brian Kemp.

Kemp, with his 61% approval rating, is highly popular with swing voters. He’s tangled with Trump in the past — as recently as last August — but if Kemp ran for the Senate, the president said, he was willing to let bygones be bygones and endorse him, which would have been a major sign of party unity.

Instead, Kemp pulled the plug. “I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family,” he wrote on X. (Per the Wall Street Journal, Kemp was worried that Trump’s tariff policy would make the political environment dicey for Republicans.)

Some Republicans were worried that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, an avid Trump supporter, might jump in, but she announced on Friday that she’s out as well. Without Kemp or Greene in the mix, the party is likely to see a competitive primary: Rep. Buddy Carter and Georgia Insurance Commissioner John King both announced bids in the last few days, and more are likely to follow.

Democrats are also looking toward popular governors as their top recruits in Maine and North Carolina, their two most enticing pickup opportunities.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine is an electoral Superwoman, hanging on in her blue-leaning state even as Democrats try to defeat her cycle after cycle. She is the last remaining Republican representing any of the New England states in Congress.

Perhaps because of that daunting record, Democrats have yet to find the right candidate to take her on. Some in the party have urged Gov. Janet Mills — last seen at a White House meeting confronting Trump over transgender athletes — to seek the seat, although she is 77 years old and seems to be wavering on a run.

Both of Maine’s House members, Jared Golden and Chellie Pingree, are also potential candidates. Golden, a centrist whose district voted for Trump by 10 points in 2024, has a history of winning tough races, but he’s expressed hesitation about challenging Collins, whom he once worked for as a staffer. Both Golden and Pingree may run for governor instead, a race that many potential Senate candidates see as easier than going up against Collins.

In North Carolina, Democrats are hopeful about attracting a popular executive to run against Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. The state is competitive on the presidential level, but it hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Still, Democrats are “increasingly convinced” that former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will challenge Tillis, which would mark a major recruiting victory given that Cooper has won six statewide elections in North Carolina.

One factor that could shake up the race: Trump has reportedly been saying privately that another Republican should challenge Tillis in the primary. Tillis sparked Trump’s ire by sinking his US Attorney nominee Ed Martin, but so far, no Republican has stepped forward to take on the incumbent.

The next set of contests to watch are a series of open races in which Republicans are hoping to pick up seats held by retiring Democratic senators.

The most competitive of these races will be in Michigan, where Rep. Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow, and former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed are locked in a fierce battle to succeed outgoing Sen. Gary Peters.

Abdul El-Sayed

Stevens is a centrist, while El-Sayed hails from the progressive faction of the party, boasting support from Bernie Sanders. You may recall McMorrow from her viral speech on LGBT rights on the floor of the state Senate.

Senate Republican leaders have consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, a former Intelligence Committee chair who came within 0.3 percentage points of winning Michigan’s other Senate seat last year, as their candidate to succeed Peters. But Trump has notably held off on endorsing Rogers so far; GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is to Rogers’s right, is also considering a run.

Even if Rogers ultimately wins the nomination, a primary fight with Huizenga would divert precious resources away from the GOP’s goal of ultimately winning the seat.

In New Hampshire, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is stepping down after three terms. Rep. Chris Pappas is expected to win the Democratic nomination to succeed her, and he would be the first openly gay man in Senate history if he wins.

On the Republican side, one notable contender is Scott Brown, who previously ran against Shaheen in 2014. Brown served part of a term as a senator from Massachusetts — winning a special election that dashed the Democrats’ 60-vote majority back in 2010 — before moving across state lines.

The final open seat worth watching is in Minnesota, where Democrat Tina Smith is stepping down. A former NBA player, Royce White, is running on the Republican side; Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are the contestants in another factional Democratic battle, with Craig backed by leading centrists and Flanagan by top progressive.

New Hampshire and Minnesota are both reach seats for Republicans, but the party hopes to make them more competitive without incumbents in the running.

Finally, there are the wild cards.

Even if Democrats flip Maine and North Carolina and defend all the seats they currently control, Republicans would still be sitting pretty: Democrats would then need to pick up two more seats to win the Senate majority.

There are some possibilities, but they would require the right candidates. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown could try to mount a comeback by running for JD Vance’s old seat in the Senate. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola could try to take on Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. (Both Brown and Peltola lost their seats last year.)

Rep. Mary Peltola

Democrats have thinner benches in Iowa and Florida, two other states with Republican incumbents facing reelection.

In Texas, Republican Sen. John Cornyn — who’s held his seat for more than two decades — would normally be gliding toward a fairly safe reelection. But Cornyn might not be the Republican nominee. His work with Democrats on a gun control package has earned him a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton; according to several polls, Paxton currently has an edge.

If Paxton wins the GOP nomination, the general election becomes murkier for Republicans. Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015. He pleaded not guilty, and years later, prosecutors dropped the charges. He was impeached by his own party in the state House in 2023 over allegations of bribery, obstruction of justice, and making false statements. (The state Senate acquitted him.) He’s a controversial figure, to say the least.

Two Democrats who have previously run for the Senate in Texas and lost, former House members Beto O’Rourke and Collin Allred, have both opened the door to running.

Beto O’Rourke

These are all long shots for Democrats — but races can become unexpectedly competitive when circumstances align. (In Texas, a Paxton nomination would make the race much more winnable for Democrats.) Last year, Independent Dan Osborn performed surprisingly well in a Senate race in Nebraska, beating most expectations. He’s formed an exploratory committee to consider challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026.

It would be an exaggeration to say that the 2026 battle for the Senate will be won or lost during the recruitment period — but not much of one. According to modeling by SplitTicket, Republicans have blown seven Senate seats in the last three cycles, and Democrats have lost two, because of candidate quality: that is, they came up short in Senate races that they “should” have won, based on factors like the state’s partisan lean and demographic makeup, but ended up losing because they lacked a strong nominee.

Neither party wants to repeat that mistake again. The last two years of Trump’s second term could end up hinging on decisions that are made in the coming weeks and months.