I know it’s on your mind, because you keep asking me: Will Joe Biden give up the Democratic nomination? As of this writing, he says he is most definitely staying in the race. He’s been working the phones with members of Congress, meeting with Democratic governors from around the country, and publicly telling the media that he is committed to seeing the election through.
But not all of the American public is convinced.
I talked to Gabe Fleisher, the incredibly smart Gen Z journalist behind the newsletter. Fleisher started his newsletter as a teenager in 2011. Members of Congress regularly read his work.
Perhaps more than anyone, Gabe understands what young voters want.
I asked him about how he’s thinking about the calls for Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee.
He said, “Democratic allies of the president are really worried about this. And then you see the campaign dismissing these worries as, ‘Oh, these are just bedwetters. These are self-important podcasters.’
“Lines that have really stung a lot of congressional Democrats, because they seem like the Biden campaign is just dismissing these worries, just saying, ‘Oh, these are just small worries of just media elites, and these are just people in the beltway who don't understand Biden.’ They’re dismissing it, when the fact is, even before this debate, huge percentages of not just Americans, but Democrats, did not believe that Joe Biden was the right nominee.”
But that’s not how Joe Biden thinks. He and those closest to him seem to be holding on in part because Biden truly believes he alone can beat Donald Trump. A different candidate, in his mind, will lose, and his number one goal is beating Trump.
Joe Biden also has a long career as a fighter.
Gabe: “There are certain themes in Biden’s life that are really unmistakable. We know he's wanted to be president for a long time, it's been a lifelong ambition of his. Now that he's gotten there, I think it's unlikely he'll just let it go.
“We know he is very stubborn. We know that very central to his personal narrative is this idea that he is frequently underestimated, that he is resilient, that he rises above that underestimation. Dating back to the nuns at his Catholic school who mocked him for his stutter, this is baked into his DNA that, ‘People doubt me, I prove them wrong.’”
Likely, the only person who might be able to convince him to step aside is his wife Jill. And we know from recent reporting that so far Jill has been steadfast in her support for him to continue in this race.
Gabe thinks ultimately, it’s going to come down to what his family is saying to him, and fundraising. If the money dries up, it’s going to be hard to justify staying in the race. The Biden campaign, by the way, said after the debate they had huge fundraising numbers. We’ll see if that continues.
But there’s one thing both candidates can’t ignore, according to Gabe, and that’s young voters.
In 1971, the 26th amendment was ratified, lowering the voting age to 18. Before that, most states required a voter to be 21 years old. The change came after so many young people became more politically active during the Vietnam war.
Since that time, young voter turnout (aged 18 to 29) in presidential elections has ranged from a low of 39.6% in 1996 to a high of 55.4% in 1972. But the next highest voter turnout was 55% in 2020.
And young voters overwhelmingly chose Biden. Sixty percent of voters under 29 voted for him, including 65% of voters aged 24 and younger. Only 36% voted for Trump.
But those numbers have the potential change considerably this election cycle.
We keep hearing that Gaza is one of the main reasons Biden’s support has dwindled with this age group. But Fleisher pointed to a Harvard survey from April that showed the top issues young voters care about are much like the rest of the country, and the war in Gaza is almost at the bottom.
The real question is whether or not young voters will even show up at all this November. Fleisher says the signs are pointing to many of them staying home.
“A lot of them are very worried about graduating and entering the workforce, into an economy that, at least they perceive, is a poor economy with high inflation, and they are taking that out on President Biden.
“So that is, in my opinion, the main issue that's driving a lot of dissatisfaction. And you see a lot of dissatisfaction with President Trump for other reasons, and so I do think it adds up to low turnout.”
Ok, so if young voters don’t like Biden OR Trump… could that mean they turn up for RFK Jr.? I’ve been telling you Kennedy has no shot at actually winning the presidency, and Gabe agrees.
“There's no better avatar for smashing the two-party duopoly that a lot of young voters dislike than Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I don't think it should be too surprising a lot Biden's 2020 voters are now flirting with RFK Jr.
“I'd personally be surprised if that level of support is maintained through November. But it definitely does tell you a lot about where Gen Z voters' heads are, that they're even thinking about it right now.”
What can political candidates do to win the support of younger voters, who they all need to show up and support them?
According to Gabe, “You have to reach young people where they are. Young voters get information in very different places than older voters.
“Just speaking anecdotally, when I talk to my friends, I ask them how they get their news, how they are hearing about politics, it's almost purely through TikTok and Instagram.
“These are both men that know how to appear on TV cameras, but it's very different on this vertical video format. They do not look very natural. So I think they really have to both work on that, or work on elevating younger leaders of the party who can make their case for them because that's where young people are consuming information. That is the battlefield on which youth opinions are being formed.”
In other words, candidates need to stop spending time trying to ban TikTok and more time trying to court voters there. The fate of the 2024 election could depend on it.
You can check out Gabe’s newsletter here.
And don’t forget: tickets to my book tour are now on sale! I can’t wait to see your faces.
